Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section highlights market moves between 1:00am and 9:00am.
The market says LAY!
Which horse is the Betfair Sportsbook market suggesting to Lay?
14:15 Yarmouth – Technique 11/4 OUT 3/1
Technique is weak in the morning markets likely because of her wide birth in stall 12. She is the market’s lay today.
Mark your card
The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!
In the opening 13:10 at Yarmouth, three-year-olds have an excellent recent record, scoring in four of the last five.
Appleby out to enhance his excellent strike rate at Yarmouth
In the 13:40, trainer Charlie Appleby has a 40% strike rate with first time out two-year-olds at Yarmouth from his last 50 runners and is six from his last ten (60%). He saddles Nations Pride 3.7511/4.
Frankie Dettori makes an unusual midweek appearance at Yarmouth in the feature race the 14:15 EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies’ Stakes on Frankel’s full sister Chiasma 17.016/1.
Trainer Robert Cowell will look for his third win in the 14:45 at Yarmouth with Blue De Vega 6.511/2, who is seven pounds lower than when a close third in this race last year.
Trainer William Haggas will look for his fourth win in the 15:20 at Yarmouth with Ajyaal 3.7511/4 – He tends to find very little off the bridle, maybe a back to lay in running?
Can Gosden debutant emulate Palace Pier and Too Darn Hot at Sandown?
John Gosden hasn’t had a first time out two-year-old winner at Sandown since Palace Pier in 2019. However, those that have won first time out here have proved to be very useful (Palace Pier, King Of Comedy, Too Darn Hot). He has Damaar 3.259/4 in the 14:55.
Richard Hannon is looking for his third straight win in Sandown’s feature race, the 15:30 Chasemore Farm Fortune Stakes, and his fourth in the last five years. He saddles Qaysar 34.033/1. He is worth a small bet at the prices.
Jockey Richard Kingscote is looking to keep his one for one 100% record intact for trainer Harry Eustace on Ziggy 4.57/2, who takes slight ease in grade in the 16:40.
Horses for courses
This section highlights horses that have won twice or more at today’s tracks and could be in with a chance today.
13:10 Yarmouth – Camachess – Has won here three times (43%)
15:10 Beverley – Show Yourself – Has won here four times (75%)
15:40 Beverley – Zihaam – Has won here six times (27%)
16:20 Yarmouth – Castana Dia – Has won here twice (50%)
Weighted to go well
“Weighted to go well” highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.
This section highlights a trainer, owner or jockey who is in excellent current form and their runners or rides for the day.
The double pays 12.19
Today’s furthest traveller is trainer Olly Murphy with Hey Bob 8.515/2 at Kelso 18:30. Olly has had four winners from 22 runners at this venue and books Sean Bowen who is two for ten for the trainer.
Race of the day
We head to Sandown today for their 15:30 Chasemore Farm Fortune Stakes Listed contest. It’s worth noting that some of these are stuck between a rock and a hard place and have very few options at this time of year – probably why three-year-olds have a great record.
Predictably, the market favours the unexposed Mostahdaf, who was in the process of running a nice race in the Group 1 St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot when last seen before being hampered on the run-in.
Many will take that at face value, but the two horses in front of him at that stage finished beaten 11 and 36 lengths, and it was too far out to suggest he would have been anywhere near the front three, especially given his finishing effort was tame.
He is a progressive Gosden horse which automatically shortens his price regardless of what he has achieved. On the bare form, he has something to find with many of these. His Heron Stakes win here on his penultimate start hasn’t worked out, but he is less exposed and open to improvement, but with that comes a short enough price.
Rhoscolyn found the drop to seven furlongs on fast ground against him at Goodwood last time, and this stiff mile on soft ground looks more his bag.
He has been highly progressive this term, mixing it in some good listed races and top handicaps.
This is slightly deeper than what he has contested, so he will need to step forward again, but he has conditions to do so and is an interesting runner.
It may be worth giving a chance to Escobar now the non-runners have come out (Perotto was very much favoured here). He has held his form well in top-class handicaps this term, and the return to a softer surface and this Sandown track could both be in his favour.
His latest effort on soft ground at Goodwood in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes sets the standard here, unless Sir Busker decides to bounce back to his peak Ascot efforts.
A return to that form at a track he has finished runner-up at on four of his five starts could be the ticket to land this. He is vulnerable to less exposed types, but he is rock solid for the level.
Timeform believe sweet can break the bank at Yarmouth
The Timeform team head to Yarmouth today and offer up three of their best bets.
Read Timeform tips here.
There’s plenty more to come from Brunnera yet
Today’s 14:15 EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies’ Stakes looks a belter, and there may be a bit of value in Hugo Palmer’s Brunnera, who has been overlooked despite running an eye-catching race at York last month.
The three-year-old was highly progressive over today’s trip before stepping up in distance last time in a competitive Sir Henry Cecil Stakes. She was much better than the bare result after being denied a clear run on multiple occasions.
She could never get fully wound up, so it’s well worth upgrading that effort especially given she came from well off the pace and the time figure married up very well to the Yorkshire Oaks.
Back down in distance and clearly progressive, from a good low draw (over 10f those drawn low win 12.5% compared to high only 7.1%) and a likely prominent position, she looks hard to kick out of the frame.
The 2022 fixture list has seen eight additional Saturday meetings and ten additional Sunday meetings.
A welcome sign to boost the sport’s exposure, one I have been calling for a long while now, including on this column.
However, there is always someone in opposition and the National Association of Racing Staff boss, George McGrath, told the Racing Post:
“We do not feel a commercial decision should trump the physical and mental wellbeing of the participants. It’s a slap in the face.”
People are always against change. It puts them in an uncomfortable position, and while this feeling is good for the human body to allow growth (never be comfortable), the brain will tell you it’s not.
I think George needs to realise that they won’t be any participants if the sport doesn’t look for ways to grow and find new revenue. This is a good move for once by the BHA.
Until tomorrow, be lucky.