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Just 4 weeks from today we will be analyzing and processing the whole range of election results that are being voted on the day before.

There are four broad areas – local elections in the three national regions (Scotland/Wales/NI) and the English local elections which are, on the face of it, in good territory for LAB.

A major segment is set to be the London boroughs and elsewhere in England there are interesting contests in a range of council areas which we have come to describe as the Red Wall. These were mostly last fought in 2018 when Mr Corbyn was LAB leader.

One of the tricky features of the 2022 locals is that there has been a considerable amount of redistricting and making comparisons is going to be harder.

There is also a tendency for the councils that count overnight to set the narrative for the elections and we need to factor in that there are going to be daytime counts which could impact on the whole picture.

One thing that will be important is the BBC’s Projected National Equivalent vote shares. Starmer must be hoping that this will have his party ahead in line with the national Westminster polling.

Mike Smithson



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