The Dallas Stars celebrate a goal in the Western Conference Final

The Dallas Stars are one win away from advancing to the 2020 Stanley Cup Final. Photo from @DallasStars (Twitter).

  • The Dallas Stars have taken a 3-1 series lead over the Vegas Golden Knights
  • Game 5 will be played on Monday, September 14, at 8:00 PM ET
  • Find the game preview and betting prediction, below

The No. 3 Dallas Stars will have the chance to eliminate the No. 1 Vegas Golden Knights when the two teams take the ice for Game 5 in Edmonton on Monday, Sept. 14 at 8:00 PM ET. Despite having a 3-1 series lead, the Stars have opened as +160 underdogs in the Stars vs Golden Knights odds.

Vegas is getting plenty of love from oddsmakers despite being one loss away from elimination. They are -186 favorites for Game 5 and were listed at -159 odds for Game 4.

Will Dallas eliminate Vegas and advance to the Stanley Cup Final on Monday? There’s one major betting trend to keep in mind for Game 5.

Stars vs Golden Knights Game 5 Odds

Team Moneyline Puckline Total Odds at DraftKings
Dallas Stars +160 +1.5 (-165) O 5.5 (+118)
Vegas Golden Knights -186 -1.5 (+138) U 5.5 (-143)

Odds as of  Sep. 12.

Frustration Is Boiling Over for Vegas

The Golden Knights suffered a second consecutive loss in Game 4 on Saturday, losing to Dallas by a 2-1 score and falling behind 3-1 in the series. They outshot the Stars for a third straight game (33-20), but couldn’t solve Dallas netminder Anton Khudobin more than once.

This series is similar to Vegas’ second-round series against the Vancouver Canucks in that the Golden Knights appeared to be the better team, but are up against a hot goaltender. The Golden Knights suffered two consecutive frustrating losses in the Canucks series, but they persevered to win Game 7 by a 3-0 score.

Khudobin is becoming an excellent story in this postseason, but the Golden Knights’ struggles on offense are worrisome. The top guns are delivering for Dallas, while the Vegas stars are slumping big time. Max Pacioretty and Jonathan Marchessault were two of the team’s top scorers this season, but they both haven’t scored in eight-plus games.

Lehner Is Taking a Beating

Vegas goaltender Robin Lehner is once again getting overshadowed by an opposing goaltender in the playoffs. While Lehner hasn’t played poorly this postseason, Vancouver goalie Thatcher Demko and the Stars’ Khudobin have risen to elite levels. Vegas has outshot Dallas 105-67 in this series, so it’s not like Lehner is getting the chance to steal games for his team.

While Lehner isn’t facing as much rubber as the opposing goaltender, the shots he’s facing are proving challenging. He took an Alex Radulov one-timer to the neck in Game 4 but stayed in the game. In Game 3, he was very slow to get up after taking a Radulov shot to an unprotected knee area at the end of the third period.

The result is likely just bruises instead of serious injury concern, but it’s something to consider with this compressed schedule. It also doesn’t help that Vegas had 22 giveaways in Game 4. Dallas is making the most of its chances and could easily win this series despite being badly outshot in the games – or game – that remain.

The Best Bet for Game 5

This Vegas offense seemed primed to break through in Game 4, and it still might, but you have to give credit to this Dallas defense and Khudobin. The Stars are showing why they concluded the regular season with some of the best defensive stats in the league.

The Stars have adjusted their play from the previous rounds and are shutting down this elite Vegas offense. The Golden Knights went from averaging 3.75 goals-per-game in their first 12 games of the playoffs to managing just 1.43 goals-per-game over their last seven games. The talent is there, but the Stars’ defense and play of Khudobin makes me reluctant to bet on them.

The ‘under’ has now hit in seven straight games for Vegas. Even if they force a Game 6, there’s a strong chance this trend will continue due to the Stars’ elite defense.  When you have a goalie who is playing at the level Khudobin is (.952 SV% in WCF), taking the under is the play.

Pick: Under 5.5 (-143)

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