Joe Burrow breaks the Bengals huddle

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) sets up behind the line in the first quarter of the NFL divisional playoff football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Bengals led 17-7 at halftime.

Cincinnati Bengals At Buffalo Bills Afc Divisional Jan 22 366

  • Exact Super Bowl outcomes have been released prior to Conference Championship weekend
  • Bengals over the Eagles is listed as the chalk, while 49ers over the Chiefs has the longest odds
  • Keep reading for the complete list of exact Super Bowl outcome odds, plus a prediction

More and more Super Bowl futures are being released every day despite the Conference Championship Games not taking place until the weekend.

The latest market to go live on Wednesday is the exact Super Bowl outcome. This market is fascinating because if you already have a Championship winner in mind, you can get much better odds on predicting who that team will beat in the Big Game, as opposed to just betting on them outright.

Exact Super Bowl Outcome Odds

Team Odds
Bengals to beat Eagles +450
Eagles to beat Bengals +500
Chiefs to beat Eagles +550
Bengals to beat 49ers +600
Eagles to beat Chiefs +650
49ers to beat Bengals +700
Chiefs to beat 49ers +800
49ers to beat Chiefs +900

Odds as of January 25 at BetRivers. Claim the BetRivers bonus code to bet on NFL Futures.

Online sportsbooks have deemed the most likely outcome to be the Bengals defeating the Eagles at +450 odds. Cincinnati’s price (+250) in the Super Bowl odds is slightly longer than Philadelphia’s (+240) at the moment, but that’s only because oddsmakers believe their path to the Championship Game is slightly more difficult.

Pass on a Bengals-Eagles Super Bowl

Both the Bengals and Eagles are small favorites in their respective conference title games. Cincinnati is the AFC’s hottest team, having reeled off 10 straight victories while losing just once since Week 5.

Joe Burrow is the talk of the NFL after how he performed in the Divisional Round over the Bills, leading Cincinnati to a convincing win as a near-touchdown underdog. Playoff success is nothing new to Joe Cool, who’s now 5-1 in his brief career in January.

Philadelphia meanwhile, just ran all over the Giants. Literally. The Eagles rushed for 268 yards on 44 carries, scoring three rushing touchdowns en route to a 38-7 win in the Divisional Round.

They’re 15-1 in games started by Jalen Hurts this season, winning eight of those outings by multiple scores. The Eagles finished the season third in overall DVOA, and are the only team remaining to rank inside the top-five on both offense and defense.

Cincinnati and Philadelphia are clearly strong bets to make it to the Super Bowl, but +450 odds to predict a Bengals victory over the Eagles just isn’t sweet enough. That price suggests that exact outcome would happen nearly 20% of the time. If you believe that to be the case then fire away, but the NFL is far too unpredictable to justify those odds.

You should be inclined to look for a more favorable exact outcome option and allow me to make the case for a Super Bowl 54 rematch.

Target Chiefs Over 49ers to Win it All

Everyone appears to be off Patrick Mahomes after his ankle injury. It makes sense because clearly his mobility has been compromised. But what if I told you that Mahomes’ expected points added per dropback after he returned from injury (.29) was higher than his season-long mark.

That’s pretty impressive considering his season-long stats are going to win him the MVP. Bettors should have extreme confidence in Mahomes’ ability to make plays, even on one foot. Furthermore, Andy Reid will put him in a position to succeed, and guarantee the offense runs in a way that protects his health.

Bettors are eager to crown the Bengals as the AFC Champion for a second straight year, but what’s being lost is the challenge they’re going to face on offense. The line in front of Burrow is severely banged up, and while that didn’t matter against Buffalo, it’s significant versus the Chiefs.

KC generates pressure at the league’s second-highest rate, and features a pair of game wreckers in Frank Clark and Chris Jones along the defensive line.

49ers Winning Streak

Over in the NFC, not enough is being made of San Francisco’s ridiculous winning streak. They’ve won 12 in a row, and have the ingredients on both offense and defense to make Philly’s life miserable.

Offensively, the 49ers boast one of the league’s most explosive units, and are built to beat the Eagles at their own game. San Francisco wants nothing more than to establish the run, and with weapons like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell, it’s hard to blame them. Philadelphia’s weakness is stopping the run, and you can bet Kyle Shanahan will devise a clever scheme to expose that.

On the other side of the ball, the Niners graded out first per DVOA in total defense. They rank second against the run and fifth versus the pass, and if you look at the games where the Eagles’ offense struggled it was all against teams who were strong against the run.

Run Defense DVOA Ranks

Team Rank
Tennessee Titans 1
San Francisco 49ers 2
Buffalo Bills 3
Miami Dolphins 4
Dallas Cowboys 5

They lost outright to Washington who ranked ninth in run defense. They narrowly escaped Indianapolis with a one-point comeback victory, against a Colts defense that was sixth versus the run at the time they met. Although Hurts didn’t play in Philly’s loss to New Orleans, the Eagles struggled to run versus the Saints’ top-eight run defense as well.

San Francisco has the athletes to stop Philadelphia’s rushing attack and make Hurts beat them from the pocket. He’s certainly capable of doing so, but it’s far less likely than if the Eagles were also set up favorably in the run game.

Kansas City was the last team to beat the 49ers all the way back in Week 7. They blew them out 44-23 in that matchup, and I’m betting they take them down again in Super Bowl 57.

Pick: Chiefs to beat 49ers (+800)

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Chris Amberley

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