Anton Watson

Gonzaga forward Anton Watson (22) dribbles the ball against Texas Tech forward Kevin Obanor (0) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game at the Jerry Colangelo Classic Saturday, Dec. 18, 2021, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

  • No. 19 Texas Tech is a 5.5-point favorite against Kansas State on Saturday
  • Kansas State has lost four in a row, 2-2 ATS
  • Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

No. 19 Texas Tech (12-3, 3-1 Big 12) is a 5.5-point road favorite at Kansas State in a Big 12 game at noon Saturday on ESPN2. The Red Raiders enter after a three-win week that included victories over No. 6 Kansas and No. 1 Baylor.

Kansas State (8-7, 0-4 Big 12) has beaten one Power 6 team this year, a 67-58 victory at Nebraska as a two-point favorite on Dec. 19.

Texas Tech vs Kansas State Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Texas Tech Red Raiders -225 -5.5 (-110) Over 127.5 (-110)
Kansas State Wildcats +185 +5.5 (-110) Under 127.5 (-110)

Odds from BetMGM on Jan. 14

Texas Tech is a 5.5-point favorite road favorite over the Wildcats, and the total is a relatively modest 127.5. Texas Tech’s -225 price on the money line means that the Red Raiders have an implied win probability of 69.2 percent. At +185 on the money line,  Kansas State’s implied win probability is 35.1 percent.

 

Red Raiders on a Roll

Texas Tech concluded its most consequential six-day stretch of the season by using a 21-6 run to take a 78-57 victory at Oklahoma State 78-57 on Thursday. That followed a 75-67 victory at No. 6 Kansas last Saturday and a 65-62 home victory over No. 1 Baylor on Tuesday.

The Red Raiders are relying on a defense that ranks 11th in NCAA Division I in field goal percentage defense (37.4) rank 12th in I in scoring defense at 58.4 points per game.

Oral Roberts transfer 6′ Kevin Obanor had 17 points against the Cowboys and is heating up after scoring 13 points against Baylor. He is 12 of 19 from the floor, 4 of 8 from distance, in those two games.

Guard Adonis Arms has 27 points and 12 rebounds and senior forward Bryson Williams had 46 points and 19 rebonds in the last three as the Red Raiders continue to prosper without leading scorer guard T. J. Shannon (14.5 points), who has missed the last seven games because of back spasms.

Texas Tech benefitted from 15 turnovers, eight steals and four blocked shots against Oklahoma State, the eighth opponent it has held under 60 points. Backup big man Marcos Santos-Silva had 10 points and 10 rebounds. Kevin McCullar, who missed the Kansas game with an ankle injury, is near full health. He had seven points, four rebounds and four assists against the Cowboys.

Texas Tech-Kansas State H2H History

Texas Tech has won the last four series meetings but is 1-3 ATS in those four. They Red Raiders are 7-1  in the last eight in Manhattan but are only 3-5 ATS, 1-5 in the last six there.  Over a the longer stretch, Texas Tech is 3-9 in its last 12 at Kansas State, 4-8 ATS.

The Red Raiders are 3-1 ATS in their four true road games this season. The total has gone under in seven of Texas Tech’s last nine games and six of its last seven road games.

Betting Trends

After failing to cover the 10-point spread in a 69-55 neutral-court loss to Gonzaga on Dec. 18, the Red Raiders are 5-1 straight up and ATS. Their only loss during that stretch was 51-47 at Iowa State on Jan. 5, which they covered a five-point underdog.

Kansas State has lost four straight straight up, going 2-2 ATS. They Wildcats are 2-6-1 ATS at home this season and 0-2 ATS in Big 12 home games.

Wildcats Gut-Punched Again

Kansas State enters after one of its most dispiriting losses in what has become a season of frustration, a 60-57 home defeat to TCU on Wednesday in game the Wildcats led by four with 28 seconds remaining. Kansas State has held second-half leads in three of their four Big 12 losses.

TCU scored the final eight points Wednesday, seven in the final 24 seconds. The Wildcats gave up an offensive rebound and put-back and committer a traveling violation before TCU went ahead 58-57 on Damion Baugh’s 3-pointer with 11.3 seconds left. K-State missed its next field goal attempt, and TCU made two free throws to end the scoring.

The Wildcats lost a 17-point lead in a 71-68 setback at West Virginia last Saturday and could not hold a six-point halftime lead in a 70-57 loss to Texas on Jan. 4. They were tied with Oklahoma with 1:05 left in the Sooners’ 71-69 victory Jan. 1.

Covid Ravages K-State

Coach Bruce Weber returned to the bench for the TCU game after a 10-day quarantine, but the Wildcats have been without key players during conference play. They had seven scholarship players against Texas.

Point guard Markquis Nowell (13.0 points, 5.2 assists), who led the Wildcats with 18 points and seven steals against TCU, missed the Texas and Oklahoma games while in Covid protocols. Starting forward 6’10 Kaosi Ezeagu (62 points. 4.2 rebounds) missed two games before returning off the bench Thursday.

Texas Tech vs Kansas State Pick

Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the country and is coming off one of its best recent Big 12 runs, but history points to Kansas State here.

Kansas State +5.5 (-110)

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Jack Magruder

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