Screenshot 2022 12 19 02.00.02

If you look through the latest polls and the reporting of them you would assume that has been a massive switch of Conservative voters to LAB.

So the 12% CON lead at GE2019 has now become LAB ones of 15% or more. This points to scores of gain by Starmer’s party at the next election. WRONG.

This is because of the widespread polling practice of netting off and just reporting the views of those who give an indication of which way they will vote.

What we rarely see reported is how many GE2019 Conservative voters are not giving a voting intention. This is quite a significant slab and the assumption must be that a fair few will go back to what they always do – vote Tory.

This is why I think the best General Election bet out there at the moment is that LAB won’t get a majority. Laying this at current prices is a value bet and one I’m doing. All my MidTerm winnings on laying a GOP majority in the Senate are now going on this.

Mike Smithson

Source link