If you are betting remember to check the bookies’ rules

The above Economist video gives a good analysis for those punters who plan to have a bet on on the race to control the US senate – which is being voted on at the same time as the President three weeks today.

This is almost as critical as the Presidency because the Republicans have been blocking so much of what has been agreed by the House. At the moment the Senate is in the hands of the Republicans with 53 of the 100 seats. So the Democrats need to flip 4 in order to get control or three if the party wins the Presidency. The VP has the casting vote.

Senators are elected for six-year terms with about a third coming up every two years. This year there are 35 contests with the Republicans defending the lion’s share.

One of the problems about betting on the Senate battle on Betfair is how the bookmaker defines the market. For not all of those Senators who usually caucus with the Democrats are actually members of the party the most well-known of these is a Senator Bernie Sanders. Betfair make it clear that only Democratic parry senators count. It is this reason that the no majority option on Betfair currently is as tight as it is.

My approach is to lay the Republicans which is currently being traded as a 26.6% chance. This way of betting ties up a lot of cash which is why I’ve taken my profits on my Buy Bide spread bet,

A Democratic party majority is currently 44% which I think is stretching it given the definition of the market.

Clearly a lot depends on whether Biden can maintain a solid lead in the Presidential polling and as we get closer all the indicators are that he is.

Mike Smithson



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