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Two leagues will be rewarded with an extra place in next season’s Champions League based on performance in Europe this season, all part of the revamp to expand it to a 36-team competition — but who is likely to benefit?

With the knockout stages of the Champions League (UCL), Europa League (UEL) and Europa Conference League (UECL) getting underway, we’re starting to get a clearer picture of which leagues could get the two places.

That said, we’re still a long way from finding out who is going to get an extra spot — and it could yet go down to the wire.

This article will be updated throughout the season to track the race for the extra spots.

It’s about the best average coefficient of all teams taking part in Europe for each country. The two leagues with the best score get an extra place.

Each win is worth two coefficient points, a draw gets you one, and you get nothing for a defeat.

There are also bonus points for getting to certain stages, which help give extra prominence to those teams who do well in the higher-profile competitions.

Champions League bonus points
4 – Group stage participation
5 – Round of 16
1 – QF, SF, final

Europa League bonus points
4 – Group winners
2 – Group runners-up
1 – Round of 16, QF, SF, final

Europa Conference League bonus points
2 – Group winners
1 – Group runners-up
1 – SF, final

The points gained by all clubs are added together, and that total score is divided by the number of clubs a country has in Europe in the season. That gives the coefficient average.

For example, if a country has 35 coefficient points and seven teams in Europe, its score is 5.00 for the table (35 / 7 = 5.00.)

## Won’t this just turn out to be extra places for two top leagues?

If we look back at the previous five seasons, England and Spain take seven of the 10 slots, with Italy and Germany one each. Only in 2021-22 did one of the countries with fewer than four teams in the Champions League (the Netherlands) finish in the top two of average coefficient.

So yes, history tells us that it’s highly likely two of the top leagues will have five places in next season’s Champions League.

## Right, so who’s in contention this season?

After the end of the group stage games, this is the top 10.

1. Italy, 14.00
2. Germany, 13.64
3. England, 13.63
4. Spain, 12.69
5. Czechia, 12.00
6. Belgium, 11.60
7. France, 11.58
8. Turkey, 10.50
9. Netherlands, 8.60
10. Denmark, 8.50

There’s barely anything between Italy, Germany and England, while Spain certainly cannot be ruled out.

Could Czechia or Belgium produce a shock and gatecrash the top two?

And we need to talk about France…

But one thing is for sure, the final table will not look the same at the end of the table. Any country that has multiple teams run deep is likely to get a top-two slot.

## OK, so what’s the state of play for the leagues?

A league needs to keep as many teams as possible still active deep into the knockout rounds. The fewer teams in European competition, the less chance there is to score coefficient points to compete for the top two.

Results will be harder to come by with the fixtures becoming increasingly difficult.

It’s even more important for England and Spain, who started with eight teams in Europe; each win is worth slightly less to the coefficient (as the score is divided by eight rather than seven for Germany and Italy.)

### 1. ITALY, 14.00

Internazionale, Lazio and Napoli are in the UCL round of 16, but it’s not looking too promising for the trio, having been unseeded in the draw. Inter take on Atletico Madrid, Lazio must face Bayern Munich, while Napoli take on Barcelona. It’s not a kind draw.

AC Milan dropped into the UEL, where they will meet Stade Rennais, while AS Roma take on Feyenoord.

Atalanta and Fiorentina topped their group and do not play in February.

Advanced to round of 16: 5
Advanced to knockout playoff round: 2

Serie A has all seven clubs through, but with such a tough UCL draw, it’s highly unlikely to be intact heading into the quarterfinals.

Knockout playoff round: Milan and Roma could boost Italy’s position, with a total of 1.43 coefficient points available to the national association score.

### 2. GERMANY, 13.64

Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig went through in the UCL. Bayern (vs. Lazio) and Dortmund (vs. PSV) may both progress, but Leipzig were drawn against Real Madrid.

SC Freiburg meets Lens in the UEL, with Eintracht Frankfurt taking on Union St.-Gilloise in the UECL.

Bayer Leverkusen are straight through to the round of 16 of the UEL so don’t play in February.

Union Berlin were eliminated from Europe at the bottom of their UCL group.

Advanced to round of 16: 4
Advanced to knockout playoff round: 2
Out: 1

The Bundesliga has six of its seven clubs still in European competition, though having three teams in the Champions League might actually be a negative in the long term.

Knockout playoff round: Two German clubs will take part in the knockout playoff round. A total of 1.29 coefficient points could be added to the average.

### 3. ENGLAND, 13.63

Arsenal and Manchester City went through as group winners in the UCL, and will be favourites to advance against FC Porto and FC Copenhagen respectively.

Brighton & Hove Albion, Liverpool and West Ham United are all through to the UEL round of 16, as are Aston Villa in the UECL.

Manchester United and Newcastle United were knocked out after finishing bottom of their UCL groups.

Advanced to round of 16: 6
Out: 2

The Premier League is in third place after two of its teams failed in the Champions League. It makes it much harder to make the top two — but deep runs from multiple teams would still give the league a chance.

Knockout playoff round: The Premier League has no teams in the knockout playoff round, so it cannot score any coefficient points and is therefore certain to be in a worse position after February’s games as other leagues pick up wins and bonus points.

### 4. SPAIN, 12.69

Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Real Sociedad continue in the UCL. Real Madrid will be expected to advance against RB Leipzig, but it’s not so clear after that. Atletico take on Inter, with Barca meeting Napoli and Real Sociedad taking on Paris Saint-Germain. LaLiga will be fortunate to escape unscathed from those ties.

Real Betis dropped into the UECL, where they take on Dinamo Zagreb in the knockout playoff round.

Villarreal don’t play again in the UEL until March.

Osasuna failed to qualify for the UECL, while Sevilla were knockout out in the UCL.

Advanced to round of 16: 5
Advanced to knockout playoff round: 1
Out: 2

Even though LaLiga has four teams through in the Champions League, Osasuna’s failure in UECL qualifying has severely affected its hopes of making the top two; if Spain’s score was divided by seven teams rather than eight, the league would be in first place rather than fourth.

The loss of Sevilla, who finished bottom of their UCL group, is also damaging, while Real Betis will have fewer bonus points available in the UECL.

That said, Spain is going to have six clubs still in action, which means it cannot be ruled out. But the likes of Atletico and Barca are going to have to shrug off some less-than-inspiring domestic form.

Knockout playoff round: Spain will have one club, Real Betis, in the knockout playoff round with the coefficient average able to increase by a maximum of just 0.5 points.

### 5. CZECHIA, 12.00

Sparta Prague meet Galatasaray in the knockout playoff round of the UEL.

Slavia Prague are straight through to the UEL round of 16, as are Viktoria Plzen in UECL.

Bohemians failed to qualify.

Advanced to round of 16: 2
Out: 1

The surprise league to appear in the race for the extra Champions League places, especially as only three teams made the group stages.

With just four teams in Europe, wins for Czechia’s clubs are worth 0.5 coefficient points to the average, compared to 0.25 for England and Spain. A successful group stage has put them in contention, but the league is very much the outsider with so few teams left.

Knockout playoff round: Czechia has one team in the knockout playoff round, with Sparta Prague able to increase the average by 1.25.

### 6. BELGIUM, 11.60

In the UECL knockout playoff round, Union St.-Gilloise will take on Eintracht Frankfurt and Gent meet Maccabi Haifa.

Club Brugge are straight through to the UECL round of 16.

Antwerp finished bottom of their UCL group and are out, while Genk were eliminated from the UECL.

Advanced to round of 16: 1
Advanced to knockout playoff round: 2
Out: 2

With just three of their five teams left, and only one certain to be in the round of 16, like Czechia, it would be a huge surprise if Belgium mounted a serious challenge. Both Union St.-Gilloise and Gent must go through in the UECL.

Knockout playoff round: A total of 1.6 coefficient points could be added.

### 7. FRANCE, 11.58

Paris Saint-Germain went through in the UCL, and will take on Real Sociedad.

Lens dropped into the UEL knockout playoff round, where they take on Freiburg.

Marseille (vs. Shakhtar Donetsk), Stade Rennais (vs. AC Milan) and Toulouse (vs. Benfica) will also be in the knockout playoff round of the UEL.

In the UECL, Lille are straight through to the round of 16.

Advanced to round of 16: 2
Advanced to knockout playoff round: 4

The knockout playoff round is a land of opportunity but also fear for Ligue 1. It could have all six clubs through to round of 16, or be left with just two. Stade Rennais and Toulouse have tough-looking ties.

Knockout playoff round: If France does keep most or all of its clubs in Europe, it will be right in the mix for an extra UCL place. The league could add a maximum of 3.33 points to the average — which could take the league from seventh to first. You cannot rule France out.

## Who gets the extra place?

If we assume the extra spots will go to one of the top leagues, it means fifth place will enter the Champions League and it will have eight (rather than seven) places in Europe. Other European berths drop down a place.

If the Premier League gets it, the access will be:

Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, FA Cup winners
Europa Conference League: Carabao Cup winners

If the cup winners finish in the top 6, the European places could drop to 7th and 8th in the table.

If LaLiga, the Bundesliga or Serie A gets it, the access will be:

Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, Cup winners
Europa Conference League: 7

If a team wins the UEL but doesn’t qualify for the UCL domestically, that league could have six places in the UCL — the five places to the leagues plus the UEL titleholders as an additional.

## Which teams would benefit right now?

Right now, RB Leipzig are fifth in the Bundesliga, with Bologna holding that spot in Serie A.