Today reports emerged in several newspapers that the government is looking at increasing national insurance contributions to overhaul social care. I’m so old I remember when the Conservative Party I used to be a member of rightly described increases on national insurance as a tax on jobs, as this chart below shows.
In my lifetime when the Conservatives start increasing taxes against the manifesto commitments or start messing around with taxation related to houses then they pay a huge electoral price, as John Major, Margaret Thatcher, and Theresa May can attest.
Right now now the Conservative Party is pandering to its client vote, ultimately one day that will be a mistake as eventually younger votes finally turn out to vote in high numbers. You cannot expect to treat the oldies as a golden generation whilst giving the workers the equivalent of a fiscal golden shower* without an electoral reckoning in the future. The young have made huge sacrifices, particularly in the last eighteen months, to ensure older voters didn’t suffer, it is time older voters repaid the favour.
Earlier on this week I wrote that the odds on the Conservatives winning most seats at the next general election felt like a steal, this is one of those black swans that could upend all that.
*Don’t google golden shower, trust me, if you don’t know what one is you’re better off not knowing.