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The Tories could be in for a tough time on May 5th – politicalbetting.com 4

Comparing the March polls with four years ago

National polls ask about general election voting intentions and not what people plan to do in the local elections. For a start there is a huge difference in turnout levels and in the outcomes in the latter will not impact on which party is in control at Westminster. However, as David Cowling always points out, they do offer a picture of the relative fortunes of the main political parties at those times.

These are his polling averages in the months leading up to the 2018 local almost all of which will be contested next month.

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The Tories could be in for a tough time on May 5th – politicalbetting.com 5

The second table shows the comparable figures in relation to May 5th.

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The Tories could be in for a tough time on May 5th – politicalbetting.com 6

So LAB and the LDs are doing slightly better and the Tories are doing worse.

In 2018, of course, Corbyn was the LAB leader – now we have Starmer who continues to outpoll Johnson in the leader ratings.

Mike Smithson



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