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We have had quite a dramatic week in the polls with LAB now recording leads over the Tories that are higher than the margin of error. The reasons have been clear for all to see. Those, like the vast majority of voters, who followed last year’s lockdown regulations are clearly not impressed by what is reported to have gone on at Number10.

The main consolation for the Tories is that the polling detail suggests that many GE2019 CON voters have not switched but are just saying they are now undecided or don’t know. In the latest YouGov just 53% of those who backed the party at the last general elections say they still support the Tories with just 11% going to the LDs and LAB.

I always argue that the best guide are the leader ratings and here there have not been many findings over the past few days but what there have been have not been good for Johnson. Focaldata had a net disapproval of 40% for the PM.

More polling is expected tonight.

Mike Smithson



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