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This must be unprecedented. Donald Trump who lost the presidency in last November’s election has now become favourite to win it back in November 2024.

This is only in the betting but it is how those who risk their money betting on political outcomes see it and the chart shows the movement that there has been since last November.

I am far from convinced that Trump has a winning path to win the nomination. A problem during the primaries is that people who back the Democrats can in many states switched to cast their primary vote in the Republican contest and you can see a huge effort by those who regard Trump as a massive threat to American democracy campaigning hard to stop him.

There is little doubt that this latest betting follows the significant decline in support for Biden who has seen a sharp change in his approval ratings.

Mike Smithson



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