A week of holding rallies in swing states has paid off for Donald Trump, according to US election betting on the Betfair Exchange.
Trump began the week at his worst odds since February, following big moves for Joe Biden last weekend, but over the past five days the president’s chances of re-election have gone from 31% to a 34% chance.He held rallies in Florida, Pennsylvania and Iowa – all of which he probably needs to win.
His odds have improved in those states but Trump 2/12.94 is still trailing over all and Biden 8/151.53 is the clear favourite to win the White House when America goes to the polls on 3 November.
For today’s election bet, Paul Krishnamurty explains how to back a Republican meltdown.
Last night Trump and Biden both held televised Town Hall-style meetings where they took questions. The events were replacements for the second presidential debate which would have taken place on 15 October but was cancelled due to safety concerns after Trump tested positive for coronavirus.
Trump was in combative mood, defending his handling of the pandemic, and refusing to disavow QAnon – the far right conspiracy theory. The president also appeared to confirm claims that he’s over $4m in debt before saying that, to a person with his wealth, that sum is “a peanut”.
Meanwhile, Biden described in detail his tax and healthcare plans and slammed Trump on coronavirus. Read Paul’s reaction to the meetings and follow today’s election Twitter thread:
Friday’s #Election2020 Thread
1⃣ The Trump gamble that started on Monday, when he returned to campaigning, is holding up. Biden is rated 4% less likely to win than last Sunday.
Check back throughout the day for latest market moves, breaking news, polls and analysis. pic.twitter.com/TAPYCPBxqJ
? Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) October 16, 2020
Biden’s running-mate Kamala Harris canceled her weekend campaign events after two people who had traveled with her tested positive for the coronavirus.
The campaign has said Harris was not been in close contact with either person. She has since tested negative for the virus. Biden was also tested on Thursday and his campaign said the result was negative.
With the future of the Supreme Court the subject of much debate, and speculation about how Trump might react to electoral defeat, Democrats have been talking up the importance of winning the senate.
The Republicans are currently in charge in the senate but a Democrat majority at next month’s election is 7/42.76 while no majority 2.67 is the favourite in a tight betting heat.