Biden winning here the best value bet of WH2020?

At WH2016 the Texas final polls had Trump beating Clinton by 11.7% compared with a 9% margin on the day. Two years later, at the 2018 midterms, the RCP polling average had Republican Senator Ted Cruz beating Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 6.8%. In the end Cruz just managed it with a margin of 2.6%.

Currently the FiveThirtyEight average has Trump ahead of Biden in the state by just 1.2%.

It is Texas, of course, which is experiencing by far the highest levels of early voting activity than any other state within the union. The latest numbers from Election Project have a colossal 52.8% early votes cast of total percent turnout from the last presidential election. That looks set to be well over 60% by the weekend.

The latest betting on Betfair on the outcome in the state gives Trump a 75% chance with Biden on 25% which I consider to be the best value bet of this election.

In my betting I cashed in nice profits on the WH2016 national spread betting markets when Biden was almost at his peak. Half of that has now gone on Biden in Texas.

Mike Smithson

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