Screenshot 2022 12 19 17.22.18

Above is from the dataset for the December 14th Opinium poll which I feature to highlight one of the big uncertainties of the next election which I have referred to before – what GE2019 Tory voters are saying now.

CON 49% : LAB 12% : LD 3% GRN 1%: REF 8%: DK 22%

From the table above the number to focus on is the 22% saying DK.

What is significant is that they are planning to vote but just this moment they are not ready to tell a pollster which way they will go. My guess is that in the marginals the party machine will have a pretty good idea about where their voting support is and this group will be targeted very strongly with the objective of getting them back into the Tory camp

The reason why this table does not correspond to the voting intention numbers published from this poll is that it includes all responses and not just those naming a party.

The critical thing from a Tory perspective is that this 22% is not saying LAB specifically.

Mike Smithson

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