Writer’s debut to earn five star reviews
Yesterday was rather frustrating as the normally sure-footed Pretty Little Liar fell at the fifth, so I hope she’s okay as she’s a smashing mare that will win from her current mark. The other selections prompted me to think I hadn’t seen a worse collection of jumpers since the Val Doonican Christmas special (now there’s a contemporary reference). Speech Bubble hit nearly every hurdle and came from too far back so done well to finish second, while Secret De Famille switched from going off too fast to being held up, but her hurdling was poor too.
Looking at Friday’s racing, we go with a Godolphin newcomer in the shape of Western Writer who runs in the 17:15 novice at a price of 11/2.
Of course it’s very much the chance you take backing a newcomer, but one thing I learned very early when I was working on Timeform Radio all those years ago was that Shamardal’s offspring at 1m to 1m2f on the all-weather are plus points.
Indeed, the Darley legend, who is sadly no longer with us, has strong stats on synthetics with remarkable longevity. From 1739 runners, a huge 666 have placed at a strike-rate of 39%. His win rate from a vast amount of runners is a healthy 18%, on the collective for all all-weather tracks it is 18%. Stats that are pretty much identical for Chelmsford alone.
Western Writer’s trainer Charlie Appleby handled the dam Yodelling to win on debut at Kempton and she also produced the selection’s half-brother Echo Of Point to win at the same track on his first start. Yodelling is out of Medaglia D’Oro – another synthetic angle.
Of the horse’s rivals – Speycaster finished third at Bath and might want a little further than tonight’s 1m. Anatomic has a penalty and Army General looks an awkward customer.
The trainer has had 13 winners in November and quite a few short priced winners recently, well very short, at 1/5, 1/6, 1/2, 2/9 and an astonishing 1/40 when Valiant Prince scored at Chelmsford.
There’s also a rare Godolphin ride for Robert Winston – who retired from the saddle and recently came back. He is a work-rider for the team and he can mark his comeback in the blue livery with success.
Today we dream of revenge for Ado
I fancy a few on the Dundalk card this evening, and if you are looking for a lay, I would be keen to take on Futurum Regem in the 17:00. He’s racing over 1m4f and I am not sure he is quick enough for the drop down from 2m to 1m4f. He was given a lot to do by Wesley Joyce on Wednesday night, and he’s a young jockey I rate highly, but with form over 2m6f in the jumps, he is far too short at 7/4.
It’s his third run in a short space of time, and Dundalk was a complete favourites graveyard three days ago. I do like Jake Peter for the Wexford native in the 19:30 over 2m. A trip that will suit him well.
I’m with another Ado McGuinness runner in the shape of Dream Today for the second leg of the double, who was unlucky in the Joe McGrath handicap at the Curragh in September. He was a place behind Laugh A Minute, who was mega-unlucky and should have won at York too – so that’s decent form. The Curragh race was over 5f, which is on the sharp side for Dream Today, and 6f around here won’t be a problem.
He blew out over 7f here recently, and was far too keen, but he ran well over CD last time when just behind Arcanears, but he can gain revenge on that rival here.
The handicapper has dropped him down into the 80s for the first time in ages, and he has a perfect draw in one on the inside with young Cian MacRedmond. He gave Eglish a lovely ride up the inside on Tuesday night to win for the trainer, and a repeat of those tactics will be perfect.