2026 FIFA World Cup Group I: Predictions, Best Bets & Odds

Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup could be considered one of the most unpredictable, mainly because it has one of the highest upset potentials in the entire field. France are the overwhelming favorites on paper, but Norway and Senegal could complicate Les Bleus more than anyone can consider. The same can’t be said about Iraq, who should have a hard time trying to even score goals as a massive underdog.

Odds to Win World Cup Group I

France are the odds-on favorite to top Group I, and their -194 odds say a lot about their chances not only to finish in first place but to make a deep run in the tournament as well, something that’s noticeable in the World Cup winner odds. The fact that Didier Deschamps’ men have odds close to -200 even before the start of the tournament, while sharing the group with Norway’s prolific attack and Senegal’s strong squad, says a lot about their potential.

However, it would be wrong to sleep completely on Norway (+317) and Senegal (+809) even if the odds aren’t favorable. Norway in particular has excellent upset potential due to their attacking power, because if one team can inflict damage on Les Bleus in Group I, that’s Norway. Iraq (+4900) are an afterthought in this race and shouldn’t be considered even as the ultimate underdog.

Odds and prices as of June 5 at Kalshi. If you don’t live in a Kalshi region, check out SBD’s list of top World Cup betting sites. 

Norway Sleeper Candidate a Sleeper Candidate?

It’s not a stretch to say Norway have one of the best attacks in Europe. Everybody is aware of Erling Haaland’s prolific numbers and his chances of being among the favorites in the World Cup Golden Boot odds, but it would be a colossal mistake to believe Norway’s attacking potential lies solely in the Manchester City striker.

Norway also have a proven striker in Alexander Sorloth, who has scored at least 20 goals across all competitions for Atletico Madrid in each of the last two seasons. If you’re looking for width, Oscar Bobb, Antonio Nusa and Julian Ryerson are creative threats on the flanks. Martin Odegaard provides creativity in central midfield.

Add it all up, and it’s easy to understand why Norway averaged 4.62 goals scored per match in the UEFA World Cup Qualifiers while facing the likes of Italy, Israel, Estonia and Moldova.

Norway might be a bit suspect defensively, which could cause them problems against France’s elite individual talent and Senegal’s pace in the final third. But with that kind of attacking power, it’s impossible not to consider Norway as a sleeper candidate to steal first place in Group I of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The World Cup public betting data loves them, as they rank eighth in both bet% and handle%, even ahead of teams such as United States and the Netherlands.If you want to learn how to pick World Cup underdogs, Norway is the perfect example of a team you should back, both in outright bets such as group winner but also in World Cup game odds. They should deliver exciting value in almost every match as long as you hit the right angle.

France Remain Favorite to Win Group I

However, despite Norway’s upset potential, it’s only fair to consider France as the main favorite to finish in first place in Group I. The fitness of William Saliba at the back could prove to be an issue, but when your backup center-backs are Lucas Hernández and Ibrahima Konate, depth isn’t going to be a problem.

As for the attacking depth, opposing defenses will have nightmares trying to contain Michael Olise (22 goals, 31 assists), Ousmane Dembele (20 goals, 11 assists) and Kylian Mbappe (42 goals, seven assists) at the same time. These three players combined for 84 goals and 49 assists across all competitions in the 2025/26 season while playing for Bayern Munich, PSG and Real Madrid, respectively.

And that doesn’t include Rayan Cherki, Marcus Thuram and Desire Doué coming off the bench as replacements. Several types of World Cup prop bets should be attractive every time France play, including shots on target, anytime goalscorers and total shots taken.

Pitch conditions, extreme temperatures, and several external factors could conspire against France throughout the tournament. But when it comes to their chances of ending the group stage in first place, it’s hard to deny their status as favorites, even if teams like Senegal and Norway can complicate them.

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