2026 FIFA World Cup Group K Picks & Best Odds to Win

From a purely technical and tactical perspective, Group K figures to be one of the most entertaining ones in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Portugal is the seeded team and odds-on favorite to finish in first place, but they’ll be facing three complicated opponents in Colombia, DR Congo and Uzbekistan.

Odds to Win Group K (World Cup)

Portugal are the biggest favorite to finish in first place in Group K at -185 (65% implied probability), which shouldn’t be surprising considering the amount of talent the team has at its disposal – mainly in the attack with Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo leading the way.

However, Colombia offer excellent value odds as a potential upset candidate at an implied probability of 31% and strong +223 odds. Bettors who are learning how to pick World Cup underdogs should definitely target Néstor Lorenzo’s men, who could be an interesting darkhorse candidate with a roster filled with players in the top leagues in the world, headlined by Bayern Munich star Luis Díaz.

DR Congo (+2400) and Uzbekistan (+4900) don’t have a realistic shot at finishing first in Group K. However, depending on how the matches shake out, don’t be surprised if one of these two teams make their way into the Round of 32 as one of the best third-placed teams.

Odds and prices as of June 6 at Kalshi. If you don’t live in a Kalshi region, check out SBD’s list of top World Cup betting sites.

Portugal Favored, But Group K Won’t Be a One-Team Race

Portugal are the favorites and the most logical choice to finish first in Group K, as they have a star-studded squad that should make a deep run in the tournament. The World Cup public betting data undoubtedly support their chances, with them sitting in fourth in handle% and fifth in bet%. In other words, Portugal are seen as part of a second wave of contenders in the World Cup winner odds, behind Spain and France while on par with Argentina, England, and Brazil, to name a few.

However, it would be a giant mistake to sleep on what Colombia might accomplish in this Group K. It’s a stretch to say Colombia are favorites to make a deep run in the tournament, but Los Cafeteros are likely to have excellent support in the World Cup game odds when facing DR Congo and Uzbekistan, making their game against Portugal a huge clash in the race for first place. These two teams will collide on June 27 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.

Colombia a Strong Upset Candidate in Group K

If Colombia defeat Uzbekistan and DR Congo in their opening two fixtures — being favorites on both according to the early odds — they could have a shot at finishing first with a good result against Portugal. But facing two lower-level opponents is far from the only reason Lorenzo’s team should be considered an upset candidate for first place in Group K.

It only takes a quick glance at their projected starting lineup to see most of their regular starters feature consistently in some of the best leagues in the world. Everything starts with Luis Díaz, though.

The winger is coming off a successful season with Bayern Munich, winning the Bundesliga and reaching the UEFA Champions League semifinals while contributing 26 goals and 23 assists in 51 appearances across all competitions for the Bundesliga giants. Díaz’s importance to the Colombian attack is so substantial that he might have an outside chance in the World Cup Golden Boot odds if the team makes a deep run.

Díaz is not the only player to watch in Colombia, though. James Rodríguez still has something left in the tank to produce one last magical moment in the World Cup. Daniel Muñoz is one of the best right-backs in the Premier League and is a key player for Crystal Palace. And while Luis Suárez will never reach the levels of his Uruguayan counterpart, he was one of the breakout stars in the 2025-26 European season after bagging 38 goals in 53 matches across all competitions for Sporting CP in Portugal.

Colombia’s qualifying run in the CONMEBOL region wasn’t easy, but they posted a strong W7, D7, L4 record while averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per fixture. They also arrive at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in top form, with just two losses in their last 10 matches overall (W6, D2). Both defeats came against France, a true World Cup title contender, and a permanent darkhorse in Croatia.

Ignore Colombia at your own peril, but don’t be surprised if they pull an upset or two in the upcoming World Cup.

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