Aaron Rodgers Signs With Steelers: Updated Win Total and Futures Odds

• Aaron Rodgers has officially signed a one-year deal with the Steelers worth up to $25 million
• Pittsburgh’s win total sits at 8.5, with their AFC North and Super Bowl odds barely moving on the news
• See the updated Steelers futures odds below, plus the one bet I’d actually make off the Rodgers signing

The will-he-won’t-he saga is finally over. Aaron Rodgers has officially signed a one-year deal with the Steelers worth up to $25 million, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, ending months of retirement speculation. The 42-year-old reunites with new head coach Mike McCarthy, who coached him for 13 years in Green Bay.

The football part of this was never really in doubt. Pittsburgh held its entire offseason hostage waiting on Rodgers, passing on every other starting-level QB option. Now that the ink is dry, the question becomes whether any of the Steelers futures markets are worth a bet.

Keep reading for the updated Steelers win total, AFC North, and Super Bowl odds, plus the one bet I’d actually make here.

Steelers Futures Odds After Rodgers Signing

All numbers above come from DraftKings. The win total sits at 8.5, with the Under juiced to -120 (55% implied probability) and the Over at even money. Pittsburgh is a +500 long shot in the AFC North and a +5000 afterthought in the Super Bowl odds market.

None of these numbers moved much on the signing, and that’s the point. The market already priced in Rodgers coming back. There’s no overreaction value to chase here.

Odds as of May 16, 2026. Check out our top recommended NFL betting apps for futures bets.

Steelers Win Total and AFC North Outlook

Pittsburgh went 10-7 last season and cashed the Over on an 8.5 total. Rodgers was efficient if unspectacular, throwing for 3,322 yards with 24 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions on a roster that was basically DK Metcalf and a bunch of question marks.

The supporting cast got better. Pittsburgh traded for Michael Pittman Jr. to pair with Metcalf, giving Rodgers his deepest receiving room since Green Bay. The defense is still the engine, ranking among the league leaders with 48 sacks and 27 takeaways last year.

The problem is the AFC North. Baltimore is the heavy favorite with a healthy Lamar Jackson, and Cincinnati is no pushover. The coaching change from Mike Tomlin to McCarthy adds a layer of uncertainty too, and that’s why the win total dipped from its early-offseason 8.5 on some books.

Best Bet: Steelers to Make the Playoffs

If I’m betting anything off this news, it’s the playoff number at +145. That’s a 41% implied probability for a franchise that’s been to the postseason three years running and just won 10 games.

The defense alone keeps this team in almost every game, and an upgraded weapons group with Metcalf and Pittman should move the ball better than last year’s unit did. A wild card spot doesn’t require winning the division, just being better than the AFC’s middle tier, and Pittsburgh clears that bar.

I’d stay away from the +5000 Super Bowl price and the +500 division number. Baltimore is the class of the AFC North, and Rodgers at 42 isn’t dragging this roster to a title. The playoff bet is the only clean angle here.