Alabama vs Missouri Prediction, Pick, ATS Trends & Updated Odds

• #8 Alabama is a 3-point favorite over #14 Missouri in Week 6
• The line has moved significantly from Alabama -6.5 to -3
• See below for my Alabama vs Missouri prediction, pick, ATS trends and updated odds

The undefeated Missouri Tigers finally get their chance to prove they belong among the SEC elite when #8 Alabama visits Columbia on Saturday. The Tigers are 5-0 but haven’t faced a ranked opponent yet. Online sportsbooks have taken notice of Missouri’s potential, with the college football odds moving dramatically in their favor throughout the week.

Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm ET from Faurot Field in Columbia, MO, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Alabama vs Missouri Prediction

This matchup pits strength against strength. Missouri boasts the nation’s fourth-best rushing attack at 292 yards per game behind Ahmad Hardy, who leads the country with 731 rushing yards. They’ll test an Alabama run defense that’s been shaky, allowing 5.3 yards per attempt (116th nationally).

The Crimson Tide have surrendered 7.5 yards per carry to Georgia and 8.0 to Vanderbilt in recent weeks. With injuries to edge players Quay Rousaw and Jamarian Laam, stopping Hardy becomes even tougher.

Key Offensive Stats

On the flip side, Ty Simpson has been lights out for Alabama. The quarterback has thrown for 1,478 yards with 13 touchdowns and just one interception, ranking third nationally in QB rating at 178.81. He’s especially dangerous from a clean pocket, which puts pressure on Missouri’s pass rushers Damon Wilson and Zion Young to disrupt his rhythm.

The Tigers have a clear edge in pass rush production, averaging 2.6 sacks per game (29th nationally) compared to Alabama’s 1.4 sacks per game (108th). This pass rush advantage could be the difference-maker against a Simpson who thrives with time in the pocket.

Missouri’s defense has been stout, allowing just 14.6 points per game. But they haven’t faced a passing attack like Alabama’s, which averages 325.4 yards through the air (5th nationally). The Tigers run 73% single-high coverage and rank 57th in coverage grade, making them vulnerable to vertical passing.

Bama vs Mizzou Pick

The sharp money has spoken. This line opened at Alabama -6.5 and has been bet down to -3, signaling respect for the undefeated home team. Missouri’s ground game should control the clock and keep Simpson on the sideline.