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- Carlos Alcaraz is a -541 favorite over Alex De Minaur in the Australian Open quarterfinals
- Both players have combined to drop just one set so far
- See my Alcaraz vs De Minaur picks and best bets for Jan 27, below
We’re down to the final eight in the Australian Open, with seven of the top-eight players still standing on the men’s side. The quarterfinal stage is headlined by #1 Carlos Alcaraz taking on #6 Alex De Minaur, with the latter looking to treat the home fans to a shocking upset.
Unfortunately, online sportsbooks don’t like De Minaur’s chances. They’ve pegged Alcaraz as a heavy -541 moneyline favorite, as he continues his quest to complete the career Grand Slam.
The action is set to get underway early Tuesday morning at 4:30 am ET/1:30 am PT, with live coverage available on ESPN.
Here are my Alcaraz vs De Minaur picks and best for the Jan. 27 showdown, plus the latest betting odds.
Alcaraz vs De Minaur Picks & Best Bets
It’s hard to believe, but Alcaraz has never made the final four at the Australian Open. In fact, this year he’s through to the final eight for only the third time in seven tries, and this is the stage where his tournament run has ended in each of the past two years.
De Minaur meanwhile, has never made a Grand Slam semifinal at any of the four Majors. He’s 0-for-6 lifetime in Grand Slam quarterfinals, and a victory on Tuesday over Alcaraz would arguably be the biggest triumph of his career.
He’ll certainly give the Aussie fans plenty to cheer about, as few men on the planet play better defense than De Minaur. The Australian seemingly runs down everything, and has been playing a more aggressive style this year, doing an excellent job of putting his opponents on the run.
De Minaur enters play having dropped only one set all tournament long, and just waxed 10th ranked Alexander Bublik 6-4, 6-1, 6-1 in the Fourth Round, a player who had yet to lose all season.
The Aussie is now just three wins away from becoming the first Australian male to win here since Mark Edmondson in 1976, and the first Aussie to crack the semis since Lleyton Hewitt in 2025.
However, a win against the World No. 1 and second-favorite in the Australian Open odds is unlikely. Alcaraz is in a different class altogether than De Minaur, as evidenced by their head-to-head history.
Alcaraz vs De Minaur H2H Results
Alcaraz is 5-0 all-time against the Aussie, winning on all three surfaces. He defeated him three times last year alone, dropping just a single set in the process. So far at this tournament, Alcaraz has played nearly flawless, breezing through each of his first four opponents without dropping a set.
Last time out, he ran over #19 Tommy Paul, although the American did force a tiebreak and an extra two games in the final set.
I certainly don’t think De Minaur is capable of the upset here without an Alcaraz injury, but I do think the Aussie can take a set off him. De Minaur has drastically improved his serve, winning 81% of his first serves in the Fourth Round, and 72% of his second serves. Combine that with his A+ return game, and the Australian should be able to extend this match.
De Minaur won 46% of his receiving points versus Bublik, who was a top-13 server last season. Alcaraz graded out only a few spots higher, and I’m banking on the Aussie getting a couple breaks off him.
As a result, I’m betting not only over 34.5 games, but also Alcaraz to win 3 sets to 1. The ladder wager offers a +235 payout, which is significantly better odds than just betting De Minaur to win a set.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur Odds
Odds as of January 26th at consensus sportsbooks. Get in on the action betting the Australian Open with the DraftKings promo code.
Make sure to shop around if you’d like to tail those wagers, as the lines vary wildly across different books. FanDuel is bet place to bet the total games market, as their 34.5 line is a game lower than most other shops. DraftKings meanwhile, has the most favorable odds an exact sets outcome of 3-1 in favor of Alcaraz.
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