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- It’s the rubber match of a 3-game set between the LA Angels and Detroit Tigers on Thursday afternoon
- Jack Flaherty’s elite strikeout rate offers tremendous prop value against a strikeout-prone lineup
- Read below for my Angels vs Tigers prediction, updated odds and player prop picks
It’s a jumpstart that both the LA Angels and Detroit Tigers could both use: a win to take the series as they play the rubber match Thursday afternoon.
The two previous matchups in the set haven’t been close, with LA opening the series with a 10-6 win, and Detroit hitting back with a 4-0 shutout Wednesday.
The books do like the Tigers to find a way to win, setting them as home favorites in the MLB odds.
First pitch is set for 1:10pm ET from Comerica Park in Detroit, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.
Angels vs Tigers Odds
The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Use the BetMGM promo code to wager on Angels vs Tigers and other MLB action.
There’s not a lot separating these teams (just one game, in fact, with the fourth-Tigers in the AL Central up on the last-place Angels in the AL West), and that’s reflected on the moneyline.
Detroit is the favorite at -130 odds, while the Angers are just +110 to win outright Thursday, with both odds from bet365.
There’s a little more variance on the runline, as the Tigers are 1.5-run favorites, and that pays at a healthy +158 odds, courtesy of Caesars. Anaheim getting 1.5 runs turns into not-so-enticing -185 odds.
The total is at 9.0 runs, with the Under paying out at -114 odds at FanDuel, and the Over at a nice +100 at bet365.
LA Angels vs DET Tigers Picks
- Best Bet: Tigers ML (-130 at bet365)
I am backing the Tigers on the moneyline, and it does have something to do with the MLB probable pitchers.
Both starters are struggling to keep runs off the board. Jack Flaherty carries an 0-6 record and a 5.94 ERA. However, his 4.88 xFIP sits a full run lower than his actual ERA, suggesting poor luck.
A high 1.66 WHIP indicates opponents are finding their way on base when making contact.
Grayson Rodriguez has endured a difficult start, as the right-hander holds a 1-1 record alongside a 10.61 ERA.
Opposing hitters have produced a .359 batting average against him. His 5.79 BB/9 highlights a severe lack of control, and his 4.47 FIP points to a need for improved command.
I think the Tigers hold a clear pitching advantage as the game progresses. Grayson Rodriguez has surrendered a 10.61 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP over 9.1 innings.
If this turns into a high-scoring affair, the Tigers hold a massive edge in relief. Their bullpen boasts a 3.98 team ERA (15th overall).
Conversely, the Angels’ relievers have allowed consistent run production, contributing to a 4.84 team ERA (28th).
The Angels have struggled as the underdog, going just 14-25 on the season, a win rate of 35.9%.
Angels vs Tigers Props
Jack Flaherty Over 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (+106 at DraftKings)
Despite a 5.94 ERA, Flaherty maintains a 10.53 K/9 rate. He faces an Angels lineup highly susceptible to the strikeout, accumulating 480 strikeout outs at the plate this season. Getting plus-money on Flaherty to eclipse 6.5 punchouts presents the most compelling betting value on the board.
Over 9 (+100 at DraftKings)
Betting the Over is the most logical total play. The Under has cashed in 60.0% of the Tigers’ last 10 games, but neither Flaherty nor Rodriguez has consistently limited damage this season. Both offenses should find plenty of run-scoring opportunities early in the game.