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- The Miami Marlins are slight home favorites to complete a 3-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks
- Miami has outscored the D-Backs 18-6 over the first two games of the series
- Read below for the my Diamondbacks vs Marlins picks, predictions and latest odds
The Miami Marlins are bringing out the brooms on Thursday, looking for a series sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Online sportsbooks seem to agree, with the home team picked as slight betting favorites in the MLB odds.
A Miami win would move them to 8-1 in their last nine, while Arizona has just three wins in its last dozen.
First pitch scheduled for at 1:10pm ET this afternoon from loanDepot park in Miami, in a game that can be seen live on MLB TV.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Odds
The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Use theScore Bet promo code to wager on Diamondbacks vs Marlins and other MLB action.
Oddsmakers have positioned this contest pretty near to a dead heat on the moneyline. Miami has -110 odds at bet365, while Arizona is getting -104 odds to win outright from FanDuel.
On the runline, taking the D-Backs to stay within a run offers just -210 odds, but taking Miami to win by at least two runs doesn’t have exceptional juice, checking in at -190 odds at DraftKings.
The game total sits 8.5 runs, where Over bettors can enjoy -110 odds, with slightly better juice on the Under, at a -105 payout.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Picks
Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+115 at DraftKings): Phillips averages 6.23 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces an Arizona lineup that has accumulated 469 strikeouts this season. Clearing a threshold of four punchouts is a highly probable outcome based on his recent workload.
Corbin Carroll to record 2+ total bases (-115 at bet365): Carroll hits .284 with a .929 OPS and leads his squad with 42 runs scored. He provides reliable extra-base hit upside.
Otto Lopez to record a hit (-320 at bet365): Carroll hits .284 with a .929 OPS and leads his squad with 42 runs scored. He provides reliable extra-base hit upside.
ARI Diamondbacks vs MIA Marlins Prediction
- Best Bet: Marlins ML (-112 at Caesars)
The pitching data reviewing the MLB probable pitchers points toward a distinct advantage for the home team.
Miami trots out Tyler Phillips, who has delivered highly effective innings this season, whileArizona will hand the ball to veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly to stabilize their rotation.
Kelly has encountered significant difficulties throughout 2026. He enters this start with an elevated 5.71 ERA and a 6.12 FIP. His inability to generate swings and misses, evidenced by a 5.71 K/9, allows too much traffic on the basepaths.
He issues nearly four walks per nine innings, which constantly pressures his defense.
Phillips brings a much steadier profile to the mound. Through 43.1 innings of work, he holds a 3.12 ERA and limits opponents to a .242 batting average. Over his last 10 appearances, Phillips has registered a sharp 2.39 ERA. He pitches to contact efficiently while managing his walk rate at 3.42 BB/9.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Team Stats
The Marlins produce consistently in their home ballpark. They rank tied for seventh in home batting average (.251) and apply tremendous pressure by stealing 1.05 bases per game. This environment perfectly suits a contact specialist like Lopez.
Conversely, the Diamondbacks struggle to generate road offense. They plate just 4.19 runs per game as visitors. Their 86.3 mph average exit velocity on the road sits 30th in the majors.
This lack of hard contact reinforces my confidence in Phillips executing his game plan, allowing the Marlins to win.