Arizona State vs Utah Prediction, Pick & Odds for Saturday Night Football

• Utah is a 10-point favorite over Arizona State in Big 12 action tonight
• Sun Devils starting QB Sam Leavitt will not play
• See below for my Arizona State vs Utah prediction and pick, plus odds for Saturday Night Football

If you’re going to sweat college football like a pro, you better be prepared to stay up late. Every Saturday there’s at least one can’t miss kickoff after dark and Week 7 is no exception. #21 Arizona State (4-1, 2-0 Big 12) faces Utah (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) on Saturday Night Football, with the Utes taking a ton of money leading up to the game per the latest college football odds.

Arizona State vs Utah Prediction

This game opened Utah -4.5, but moved drastically towards the Utes once Sun Devils QB Sam Leavitt was listed as doubtful. Utah money quickly moved the line to -7 and then -8.5, before finally moving to -10 once Leavitt was ruled out. There’s no question that Leavitt is instrumental to Arizona State’s offensive success, but the Sun Devils hate has gone too far.

For starters, there’s a competent backup in place. Jeff Sims has five previous years of college football experience under his belt, and has thrown over 700 passes against D1 opponents. The numbers aren’t sparkling, but he averages 7.0 yards per attempt and is also a threat with his legs.

Sims has rushed for 1,478 yards and 13 career scores. The Utes haven’t had a ton of time to prepare for him, so there’s a chance his style of play catches them off guard.

Also working in Sims’ favor is an excellent rushing attack behind him. Arizona State averages over 200 rushing yards per game, ripping off 5.2 yards per carry. If there’s a weakness in the Utah defense it’s versus the run, where they rank outside the top-70 in yards allowed per game and per carry.

I’m predicting the Sun Devils will lean on their run game extensively tonight, slowing down the game and keeping the Utes offense on the sidelines. This game features a low 44.5 point total, and it’s rare that a team pulls off a double-digit cover in a low scoring game.

Arizona State vs Utah Pick

I think Sims and Co. can put up enough scoring to keep this game close, but the main reason I’m taking the points with the Sun Devils in my Arizona State vs Utah pick is because of their defense. That unit is playing like a CFP odds contender, ranking top-22 in yards per play allowed, while neutralizing every rushing attack in their path.

Arizona State is yielding just 2.5 yards per carry and 75 rushing yards per contest. Both those numbers are top-seven in the nation, and that’s forced opponents to lean pass heavy.

Arizona State Defensive Stats

Utah QB Devon Dampier has done an excellent job getting the ball out on time and moving the sticks through the air, but the Utes offense lacks an explosive element. They rank 134th in explosive passes this season, with Dampier completing just 2-of-16 throws of 20+ yards. It’s hard to build margin without the ability to score quickly, especially when you face a defense as talented as the Sun Devils.

Arizona State vs Utah Odds

The best odds we can get on Arizona State +10 as of Saturday afternoon is -110 at Bet365. The Sun Devils are +290 underdogs to pull off the upset, while Utah comes back as a -370 moneyline favorite. I’d stay clear of the ASU moneyline and stick with the spread wager, but there is merit to also taking the under.

Odds as of Oct. 11 at Bet365. New customers can claim the Bet365 promo code and get a bonus to bet on college football.

Per the college football public betting trends, the under has cashed in nine of the Utes last 12 home games, while Arizona State is a perfect 5-0 to the under so far this season.