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? How has last week’s sacking/defection played out with the public? Badenoch’s approval rating doesn’t appear to have taken a hit, in fact at -11 she reaches the highest since she first became leader and first time she has polled higher approval than Farage since then, though both are underwater.

— Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T08:48:07.149Z

What about how well it reflects on the two main actors? Lots of Brits take a neutral view but they are more likely (34%) to say it reflected well than badly (11 per cent) on Badenoch. 14% say the incident reflects well on Jenrick, while 37% say it reflects poorly on him.

— Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T08:48:07.151Z

On attributes for 3 party leaders from a listStarmer1. Weak (36%)2. Out of touch (33%)3. Incompetent (31%)Badenoch1. Intelligent (22%)2. Out of touch (18%)3. Professional (17%)*But* don’t know on top at 29%Farage 1. Dishonest (27%)2. Patriotic (24%)3. Divisive (23%)

— Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T08:48:07.154Z

What about voting for defectors? 70% of Conservative voters say that they wouldn’t vote for an MP who defected to Reform.But in a sign taking in Tories isn’t necessarily blunting their appeal: 72% of Reform voters say they’d be happy voting for someone if they were previously a Tory MP.

— Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T08:48:07.156Z

There’s plenty enough for both Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch to be happy but long term I think Nigel Farage will be the most happy.

TSE



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