Avalanche vs Ducks Prediction, Picks, Odds & Projected Lineups for March 3

• I’ve made my Avalanche vs Ducks prediction for Tuesday’s late-night matchup at Honda Center
• Colorado is on the second half of a back-to-back but has won seven of eight in Anaheim
• Keep reading for my Avalanche vs Ducks picks, odds and projected lineups for tonight’s ESPN+ broadcast

The Colorado Avalanche (40-10-9, 18-6-5 away) became the first team in the NHL to hit the 40-win mark with Monday’s 4-2 win in Los Angeles, and now they head 30 miles south on the second leg of a back-to-back to face the Anaheim Ducks (33-23-3, 20-8-1 home).

Anaheim is the hottest home team in hockey right now with eight straight wins at Honda Center and five in a row overall, good for second in the Pacific Division. This is the third and final regular-season meeting, with the clubs splitting the first two.

Puck drop is set for 10 pm ET on ESPN+. Here are my Avalanche vs Ducks picks, prediction and projected lineups.

Avalanche vs Ducks Prediction

My Avalanche vs Ducks prediction is on the under 6.5 goals at plus money. I know everyone sees MacKinnon (41 goals, 99 points) and Anaheim’s five-game heater and expects fireworks, but the head-to-head data paints a completely different picture.

Avalanche vs Ducks Head-to-Head

The under is 4-0-2 in the last six meetings and 9-2-1 over the last 12 in Anaheim. These games just don’t produce a ton of goals, regardless of how good either team’s offense looks on paper.

Colorado ranks first in goals against (2.42 per game), first in save percentage (.909) and first in opponent shooting percentage (9.11%). They don’t give up easy looks, and they sure don’t give them up often, allowing just 26.59 shots per game.

Avalanche vs Ducks Key Stats

The back-to-back angle actually helps the under case. Tired teams simplify their game, dump pucks in and lean on structure. Colorado’s 2.55 road goals against per game is the third-lowest mark in the league, so they know how to win ugly away from home.

Anaheim has also been winning tight games lately. Three of their last five wins came after trailing in the third period, and Dostal stopped 40 of 41 shots in the January meeting. I’ll grab the plus money on the under and ride the trend.

Avalanche vs Ducks Picks

MacKinnon leads the NHL with 41 goals in 59 games and has 47 points (17 goals, 30 assists) in 36 career games against Anaheim. He scored and added an assist against the Kings on Monday, and he’s registered points in three straight since returning from the Olympics.

Dostal is a good goalie, but at -105 I’m betting on the league’s top goal scorer against a team allowing 3.49 goals per game. MacKinnon gets enough chances on any given night to make this a near-automatic play.

Gauthier leads the Ducks with 28 goals and 52 points and has scored in each of his last three games. His shots on goal line is set at 3.5 with the over favored, so the books clearly expect volume from him tonight.

With Terry, Granlund and Vatrano all out of the lineup, Gauthier is the primary trigger man on a top line with Carlsson and Kreider. At +165, I’m happy to back Anaheim’s best scorer in a game where he’s going to see heavy minutes and plenty of looks.

Avalanche vs Ducks Odds

Odds as of March 3 via consensus sportsbooks. Grab the BetMGM promo code and get a sign-up bonus for tonight’s NHL odds.

The latest Avalanche vs Ducks odds have Colorado around -150 on the moneyline despite the back-to-back, with Anaheim at +125. The puck line is set at 1.5 goals, with Colorado at +155 and the Ducks at -190. The total sits at 6.5, with the over at -130 and the under at +110.

Colorado’s -150 moneyline carries roughly a 60% implied probability. That number has ticked down from the -164 opener, likely because of the back-to-back and Lehkonen’s injury. Anaheim’s 20-8-1 home record and the eight-game home winning streak are keeping the Ducks’ price reasonable.

Avalanche vs Ducks Projected Lineups

Colorado Avalanche Projected Lines

Forwards:

Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Martin Necas
Victor Olofsson – Brock Nelson – Valeri Nichushkin
Ross Colton – Jack Drury – Jason Polin
Zakhar Bardakov – Parker Kelly – Gavin Brindley

Defense:

Devon Toews – Cale Makar
Josh Manson – Brent Burns
Brett Kulak – Sam Malinski

Goalie: Scott Wedgewood (confirmed)

Wedgewood gets the start after Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 19 of 21 in Monday’s win. He’s been excellent this season with a 21-4-4 record, 2.16 GAA and .913 save percentage.

Wedgewood was sharp in the January meeting against Anaheim too, stopping 15 of 16 in the 2-1 shootout loss.

The big news is Artturi Lehkonen leaving Monday’s game with an upper-body injury. Coach Bednar confirmed he’ll “miss some time,” and the Avs recalled Jason Polin from the AHL. Joel Kiviranta (concussion) and Logan O’Connor (hip surgery) also remain out.

Anaheim Ducks Projected Lines

Forwards:

Chris Kreider – Leo Carlsson – Cutter Gauthier
Jeffrey Viel – Mason McTavish – Beckett Sennecke
Alex Killorn – Ryan Poehling – Jansen Harkins
Ross Johnston – Tim Washe – Ian Moore

Defense:

Jackson LaCombe – Jacob Trouba
Olen Zellweger – Radko Gudas
Pavel Mintyukov – Drew Helleson

Goalie: Lukas Dostal (confirmed)

Dostal has been a workhorse all season with a 24-13-2 record, though his 2.97 GAA and .896 save percentage aren’t spectacular. He was unreal in the January meeting, turning aside 40 of 41 Colorado shots.

McTavish said the Ducks will try to “play super simple” again tonight, and coach Quenneville echoed the sentiment, saying the key is “no lulls, big starts, and consistency” against Colorado’s speed.

Anaheim’s injury list is significant. Troy Terry (upper body), Mikael Granlund (upper body), Frank Vatrano (shoulder) and Ryan Strome (illness) are all out. Vatrano and Strome skated at morning skate but won’t play for the third straight game. Petr Mrazek is done for the season with a lower-body injury.