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- Who are the best bets to hit a home run on opening night of the MLB season?
- Aaron Judge has two home runs off Logan Webb in just 9 PAs
- See my top Yankees vs Giants home run picks on Wednesday, March 25
The New York Yankees (94-68 in 2025, 91.5 O/U in 2026 MLB win totals) and San Francisco Giants (81-81 in 2025, 80.5 O/U in 2026 MLB win totals) open the 2026 MLB season tonight at Oracle Park in the Bay Area. First pitch is scheduled for 5:05 pm PT/8:05 pm ET. Max Fried (2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 2025) starts for the Yankees against Logan Webb (3.22 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 2025) for the Giants.
Tonight’s game will stream exclusively on Netflix, but thousands of MLB games this season will be available via Fubo TV.
It’s been 144 days since Game 7 of the World Series, meaning it’s been 144 days since bettors could wager on MLB home run props. Without further ado, here are my two best Yankees/Giants home run picks for tonight’s season-opener.
NYY vs SF Home Run Pick #1: Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+614 at Kalshi)
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My top home run pick for Yankees/Giants is longtime Red Sox slugger Rafael Devers to go yard against a team he used to see a lot of. The best price on a Devers home run is 14¢ at prediction site Kalshi, which is the equivalent of +614 odds in traditional sports-betting terms.
Devers has one home run off of Fried in nine plate appearances, plus another three off of current Yankee relievers in 40 plate appearances, according to Sportradar data. (The table below sets out the full data for SFG hitters against Max Fried and active NYY relievers. The numbers in parentheses are plate appearances.)
Giants HRs vs Fried & NYY BP
Devers is projected to hit 29 home runs this season at FanGraphs. Last year, after he was dealt to the Giants, he cranked 20 home runs in 90 games (a 36 HR pace over 162 games), with 11 of those 20 coming at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. His peripherals portend plenty more power to come: he finished in the 97th percentile in the MLB in both Avg Exit Velo and Hard-Hit %, according to Baseball Savant.
If you don’t have access to prediction site Kalshi, BetMGM has the best price at traditional sportsbooks, offering Devers 1+ HR at +550 odds.
My second home run pick isn’t going to catch anyone off guard.
NYY vs SF Home Run Pick #2: Aaron Judge (+317 at Kalshi)
My second and final Yankees vs Giants home run pick is reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge, who is priced at 24¢ at Kalshi, equal to +317 odds. I wouldn’t bet this at traditional sportsbooks, where Judge is just +260 (or shorter). But, at Kalshi, you can also take the under on Judge HRs, which keeps the line from ballooning too high.
Judge is the only Yankee with real success against Webb, at least in terms of power, with two homers in just 9 PAs. Only two other Giants have HRs off Webb, and they needed considerably more PAs just to go yard once: Paul Goldschmidt (1 HR in 22 PAs) and Ryan McMahon (1 HR in 46 ABs). Full data for Yankee hitters against both Webb and active SFG relievers is found in the table below.
Yankees HR vs Webb & SFG BP
Judge has one career opening-day home run; coincidentally, it came against the Giants back in 2023, but that game was at Yankee Stadium. He enters 2026 as the +200 favorite in the AL MVP odds.
As mentioned, if you don’t have access to Kalshi, consider sitting this one out from a Judge standpoint. The +260 odds on offer at BetMGM have an implied win probability of 27.4%, which is 3.4% higher than the price at Kalshi.Those are unfriendly margins.