Best Home Run Picks Today

Wednesday’ brings another full 15-game slate in the MLB packed with intriguing home run odds. I have built today’s home run picks around four monsters: James Wood, Nick Kurtz, Yordan Alvarez, and Pete Alonso.

The table below summarizes today’s picks, plus the best-available odds/prices for each player.

Home Run Picks Today (June 17)

My four picks for Wednesday are James Wood at 23¢, Nick Kurtz at 26¢, Yordan Alvarez at 24¢, and Pete Alonso at 19¢.

Wood is the best blend of price, power, and park; Kurtz has the hottest recent home run form; Alvarez is the safest premium power profile; and Alonso is the best sub-20¢ value today.

James Wood — 23¢ (+335) at Kalshi

James Wood is my favorite price on the board. The 23¢ tag gives him a lower market cost than the most expensive bats, but his underlying profile belongs near the top of the slate. Wood has 20 home runs this season with a .555 slugging percentage, .967 OPS, and a massive 95.6 mph average exit velocity. He is also hot right now, with three homers over his last 10 games while slugging .658 with a 1.114 OPS.

The park context seals it. According to Radar360 data, Nationals Park ranks third this season in the current ballpark data at 11.32 runs per game and 2.89 home runs per game. Wood combines elite raw power, recent form, and one of the best offensive environments on the slate, making 23¢ my best buy.

Nick Kurtz — 26¢ (+285) at Kalshi

Nick Kurtz is expensive at 26¢, but he still makes the condensed card because his recent power form is the loudest of any hitter listed. Kurtz has 18 home runs this season with a .558 slugging percentage, 1.000 OPS, 93.7 mph average exit velocity, and an 18.333 PA-per-HR rate.

The recent form is even stronger: seven home runs over his last 10 games with a .900 slugging percentage, 1.369 OPS, and 93.4 mph average exit velocity. Even at the highest price on the board, Kurtz has enough upside to remain a top-four EV play.

Yordan Alvarez — 24¢ (+317) at Kalshi

Yordan Alvarez is a premium power bat at 24¢. His season-long numbers are among the cleanest on the board: 24 home runs, a .644 slugging percentage, a 1.075 OPS, and a 94.4 mph average exit velocity. Those numbers are good enough to make his the outright favorite in the AL MVP odds. He has also hit three home runs over his last 10 games while posting a .641 slugging percentage.

Daikin Park strengthens the case. It ranks seventh in run environment and is allowing 2.86 home runs per game. Alvarez’s combination of top-end power, hard contact, and a strong HR venue makes the 24¢ Yes price one of the stronger premium buys.

Pete Alonso — 19¢ (+426) at Kalshi

Pete Alonso is the best price-sensitive value to keep on the trimmed card. At 19¢, he is cheaper than several premium names while still carrying a true middle-of-the-order home run profile. Alonso has 16 home runs this season with a .470 slugging percentage, .807 OPS, and a 95.0 mph average exit velocity.

The recent form is exactly what I want for a HR buy: four home runs over his last 10 games, a .657 slugging percentage, 1.066 OPS, and 95.3 mph average exit velocity. T-Mobile Park is not the best run environment on the slate, but it is still averaging 2.39 HR/G, and Alonso’s raw power makes the 19¢ price attractive enough to crack the top four.