Blue Jays vs Yankees Expert Picks & Props to Bet (May 21)

• The Yankees are favorites in the finale of a four-game set against the Blue Jays
• Carlos Rodon toes the rubber for New York while Toronto has opener Braydon Fisher
• See my Blue Jays vs Yankees preview, analysis and predictions for Thursday’s duel

The New York Yankees (30-20) finish up their series with AL East rival Toronto Blue Jays (22-27) tonight at 7:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium. Viewers can catch the action on YES Network in the United States and Sportsnet in Canada. Each game in this series has been decided by one run, and Toronto finds themselves as underdogs in the MLB odds as they attempt to split.

Keep reading for my Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions, favorite player prop to bet and whether the MLB weather will be a factor, like it was in the latest battle, which saw a two-hour rain delay before play started.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Picks & Predictions

• Blue Jays vs Yankees Pick: Yankees ML (-155 at Caesars)
• Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Bases (+117 at DraftKings)

The Yankees have been the superior team on both sides of the diamond. Their lineup produces a .766 team OPS, which dwarfs Toronto’s collective .675 OPS. The Yankees average an incredible 6.50 runs per game with a league-best .867 OPS at home. In stark contrast, Toronto scrapes together just 3.64 runs per game away from Rogers Centre. NYY are 16-7 at home, while TOR is 9-16 on the road.

My primary play is the Yankees Moneyline. Toronto is a ghastly 5-14 on the campaign as an underdog. The bullpen will be taxed also, with this being an opener ‘start’ for Braydon Fisher and several other pitchers.

Moving to the prop market, backing Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases provides excellent value with him being due in this series (hasn’t done it in three games). Judge consistently punishes opposing pitching, entering tonight with a .975 OPS and 16 home runs (3rd most in MLB). New York leads the league in home average exit velocity (90.5 mph), and Judge is the primary power source driving that elite metric.

Take a look at the MLB batter vs pitcher stats for additional information to glean on before wagering on the Blue Jays vs Yankees this evening.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Odds & Public Betting

Odds as of May 21, 2026, at 10:03 AM ET from Caesars Sportsbook. Click here for a Caesars Sportsbook promo code before betting on Blue Jays vs Yankees.

In the MLB public betting splits, the public is heavily backing the home favorites tonight. New York commands 82% of the moneyline tickets and 64% of the total money.

When it comes to the total, the Over is the dominant play. It is receiving 75% of the handle and 73% of the cash.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Injury Report

Both dugouts are dealing with extensive injury lists. Toronto is missing frontline starters Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, and José Berríos, who will underdog Tommy John surgery.

Offensively, the losses of Anthony Santander and Alejandro Kirk take significant thump out of a lineup already struggling to produce runs. While New York is also missing stars like Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton and Max Fried, they’ve been able to withstand more ailments so far a quarter into the season.

How to Watch Blue Jays vs Yankees

TV Network: MLB Network, Sportsnet, YES

Away Team: Toronto Blue Jays

Home Team: New York Yankees

Date: May 21, 2026

Game Time: 7:05 PM ET / 4:05 PM PT

Venue: Yankee Stadium

Location: Bronx, New York

Be sure to check the MLB park factors to aid in your bets for this skirmish between AL East rivals.