Brazil Blocks Prediction Market Platforms

Brazil has blocked access to prediction market platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi, after regulators determined that event-based contracts fall outside the country’s legal betting framework.

The enforcement action forms part of a wider campaign against unlicensed gambling, with authorities moving to restrict sites that allow users to wager on outcomes tied to elections, sports, entertainment, weather, economic developments and other real-world events. Officials said the platforms were offering illegal betting products and exposing consumers to financial risk.

Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced the action during a press conference in Brasília, where he said Brazil had already moved to block dozens of platforms. Reports cited 27 blocked sites, while officials at the press conference said 28 platforms had already been restricted and that additional services would face the same treatment if they attempted to operate in the country.

“We have advocated for stricter enforcement and very rigorous regulation, which will continue to advance, so that we can curb the negative externalities and social harm that unregulated gambling causes to the Brazilian population,” Durigan said, as Bloomberg reports via Yahoo Finance.

New Resolution Defines Prohibited Event Markets

The decision followed a resolution from Brazil’s National Monetary Council, which includes government and central bank representatives. The measure clarified which products can be treated as permissible underlying assets in the derivatives market.

Under the resolution, contracts linked to sporting events, online gambling activity and real or virtual events of a political, electoral, social, cultural or entertainment nature are prohibited. That position effectively blocks prediction markets from presenting event contracts as financial derivatives when their mechanics resemble betting.

Miriam Belchior, chief of staff of the presidency, said the government wanted to prevent the growth of products it views as harmful to consumers.

“Now, we are announcing that prediction markets will not be allowed in Brazil,” she said. “We do not want to expose Brazilians to risks and financial losses.”

Durigan said officials had examined the platforms and concluded that betting on outcomes such as weather conditions did not fit within Brazil’s existing rules for sports betting and online gaming.

“Platforms are already being blocked to prevent uncontrolled growth and risks to the population,” he warned. “Currently, 28 have already been blocked, and others that emerge will suffer the same fate.”

Brazil launched its regulated online betting market in January 2025. Since then, Durigan said authorities have blocked 39,000 unlicensed betting sites.

“Our goal is to curb any type of illegal betting,” he said.

Kalshi and Polymarket Draw Global Attention

Polymarket and Kalshi are among the most visible platforms affected by the action. Polymarket operates through blockchain infrastructure and became widely known during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle. Kalshi is regulated in the United States by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and had announced plans to expand into Brazil through a partnership with XP International.

Brazil’s response indicates that foreign authorisation or crypto-based infrastructure does not change how the government views these products under domestic law. Regulators are treating prediction markets as gambling services where users stake money on uncertain outcomes, rather than as approved financial instruments.

Durigan said the law passed by Congress does not provide for these products.

“The product offered by these platforms is not eligible for regulation. The blocking action is due to non-compliance with the legislation. This market is not provided for in the legislation, and it will not be permitted for anyone to bet on whether it will rain tomorrow or not.”

Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, said Brazil’s regulated betting framework was created to organise a defined sector, covering fixed-odds sports betting and online gaming.

“Betting that is not related to sporting events and online games was excluded from this regulation. Any other type of betting is prohibited,” he emphasised.

Enforcement May Continue Beyond Blocking

Brazil’s national telecommunications agency, Anatel, has begun blocking access to the platforms, while the country’s securities regulator CVM has been tasked with additional oversight and rulemaking.

The resolution does allow some contracts tied to economic-financial benchmarks, subject to CVM discretion. That distinction leaves room for regulated financial derivatives while excluding event markets linked to politics, sports and entertainment.

The decision could affect future plans by Brazil’s stock exchange, B3, which had explored prediction-style products. B3 has already confirmed new contracts tied to the Ibovespa equity index, the Brazilian real, and Bitcoin, but event-based contracts linked to elections now appear prohibited under the new framework.

Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting, said authorised betting platforms must follow the rules established under Brazil’s public service model for fixed-odds betting.

“Prediction markets entered Brazil to offer bets disguised as derivatives,” Cardoso said. “This is illegal and has not been recognised by the Brazilian government.”

Ricardo Morishita, national consumer secretary, also warned consumers about illegal betting products and advised players to use regulated sites identified by the bet.br domain.

The enforcement action places Brazil among a growing list of jurisdictions applying gambling law to prediction markets. France, Hungary and Portugal have also restricted access to Polymarket in recent years, while several U.S. states have pursued enforcement against event-contract platforms despite federal regulatory disputes.

Polymarket did not immediately respond to requests for comment. A Kalshi spokesperson said the company was reviewing the resolution.