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- The surging Milwaukee Brewers are in Pittsburgh to open a 3-game set vs the Pirates
- Milwaukee has won eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings
- Read below for the my Brewers vs Pirates picks, predictions, updated odds and betting splits
The NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers are on the road, opening a three-game set Friday with division rival Pittsburgh.
The Pirates start the day 12.5 games back of the Brew-Crew, who have won five of the last six.
Still, the books like the home team, setting the Pirates as betting favorites in the MLB odds.
First pitch goes tonight at 6:40pm ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.
Brewers vs Pirates Picks
Braxton Ashcraft Over 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (+104 at FanDuel)
You’re getting plus-money value on a pitcher with a 10.14 K/9 rate facing a strikeout-prone lineup.
Over 7.5 Runs (55¢ / -122 at Kalshi)
Brandon Sproat’s struggles with run prevention and Pittsburgh’s elite home offense fuel a high-scoring projection.
MIL Brewers vs PIT Pirates Prediction
- Best Bet: Pirates ML (-122 at Kalshi)
Despite Milwaukee boasting a superior overall record, Pittsburgh holds a massive advantage when looking at the MLB probable pitchers.
Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft has been electric, pitching to a 3.24 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 108.1 innings.
Ashcraft serves as a driving force for Pittsburgh, compiling an impressive 12-6 record with a 3.17 FIP. He remains razor-sharp, maintaining a 3.62 ERA over his last 10 outings. His elite control yields just 1.66 walks per nine innings during that recent span.
I trust his command against a Brewers lineup that can be inconsistent on the road.
Milwaukee counters with rookie Brandon Sproat, who carries a 5.02 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP through his outings.
He struggles to pitch deep into games, averaging just 4.83 innings per start over his last 10 appearances. While his 9.67 K/9 rate shows strikeout potential, his command issues frequently lead to early earned runs.
Sproat allows 1.59 home runs per nine innings, which spells trouble against a Pittsburgh offense that leads the league with 5.54 runs per game at home.
The Pirates transform into a juggernaut at PNC Park, pacing the league with a .806 OPS at home. When discussing batter vs pitcher stats, I expect Bryan Reynolds and the rest of the Pittsburgh lineup to capitalize on Sproat’s mistakes early in the count.
The Pirates have also won six of their last 10 games when playing as the betting favorite.
Brewers vs Pirates Odds & Betting Splits
The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Be sure to use the BetMGM promo code to bet on Brewers vs Pirates or any other MLB game.
Bookmakers clearly favor the mound mismatch, pricing Pittsburgh as -126 home favorites at FanDuel, while the Brewers are getting +115 odds as the underdog, courtesy of bet365.
Taking the Prates to win by at least two runs pays out at +160 odds, but taking Milwaukee and taking the two runs comes at a price. According to Caesars, that comes in the form of -178 odds.
As for the total, it initially opened at 8.5 runs before sharp money forced oddsmakers to drop it to a flat 8. Taking the Under pays out at -104 odds at DraftKings.
Looking at the MLB public betting splits, and there’s plenty of variance. On the moneyline, the money is split 50% down the middle, though 67% of the bets are headed Pittsburgh’s way.
It’s more pro-Brewers on the spread, with 43% of the bets, and 65% of the money leaning on Milwaukee.
There’s no mistaking the betting public is targeting the Over, with 71% of the bets and 75% of the money taking Over 8.0 runs on Friday.