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  • The opening AFC Championship Game odds list the Denver Broncos as home underdogs
  • Denver will be without starting QB Bo Nix, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the Divisional Round
  • See the opening Patriots vs Broncos odds (spread, moneyline, total) for the AFC title game

The matchup isn’t quite finalized – the Patriots still need to close out their Divisional Round game against Houston – but New England has a big lead and sportsbooks have already opened the odds for a New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos AFC Championship Game.

Some of the sting has been taken out of the AFC title game after the top-seeded Denver Broncos (15-3, 9-1 home, 8-9-1 ATS) witnessed QB1 Bo Nix suffer a season-ending ankle injury in their 33-30 OT win over Buffalo.

With underwhelming backup Jarrett Stidham slated to take the reins of the offense, Denver has opened as a sizable home underdog against the #2 New England Patriots (16-3, 8-0 away, 13-6 ATS) in the 2026 AFC title game.

Opening Patriots vs Broncos Odds

The Patriots vs Broncos odds have opened with New England as a 4.5-point favorite and -225 on the moneyline. The Broncos come back as +188 home underdogs. The total is sitting at 40.5 with -110 odds both ways.

Odds as of 1:47 pm ET at FanDuel. Claim the best football betting promo codes ahead of the AFC Championship Game.

The Broncos are playing in their first AFC Championship Game since Peyton Manning led the team to a Super Bowl 50 victory in 2015-16. The Patriots haven’t been in the AFC title game since 2018, and are making their first postseason appearance since the Tom Brady era.

The Patriots have the second-best Super Bowl 60 odds at +275 (while leading the Texans by 11 in the Divisional Round), while the Broncos are +1000 longshots (or worse), despite already booking their ticket to the AFC Championship Game. Those are, by far, the longest odds of the remaining teams (excluding Houston).

NE vs DEN: H2H Statistical Comparison

The Broncos have a slight edge in defensive metrics, while the Pats have been considerably better on offense, a discrepancy which is expected to grow now that Nix is out.

The Patriots and Broncos didn’t play this season or last, so there is no relevant history between the teams. Neither quarterback has ever faced the opposing defense.

Bookmark SBD’s NFL odds page to see up-to-the-minute lines for every NFL playoff game, and our NFL public betting percentages to see where the sharp money is going.

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