Cardinals vs Pirates Props & Picks for Dobbins vs Skenes

• The St Louis Cardinals look to complete a 4-game series sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates Thursday
• St Louis will have to go through reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes
• Read below for the my Cardinals vs Pirates picks, favorite props and updated odds

The St. Louis Cardinals (17-13, 10-5 away) look to complete a 4-game series sweep on the road in Pittsburgh against the Pirates (16-15, 8-8 home).

That means having to go through reigning 2025 NL Cy Young Award Winner Paul Skenes to do it.

The books are aware of the pitching matchup, setting the home team as hefty home favorites in the MLB odds.

First pitch goes at 12:35pm ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Cardinals vs Pirates Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change

The Pirates are currently priced as massive -220 home favorites on the moneyline at FanDuel, a testament to the distinct pitching advantage they hold. Bettors looking for a greater payout can find plus-money value (+105) on the runline at bet365, requiring the Pirates to win by at least two runs.

Taking the Cardinals to win outright games at +185 odds at bet365, while St Louis staying inside two runs pays out at -120 at BetMGM.

Meanwhile, anticipating a pitchers’ duel, the remarkably low game total of 7.5 runs has remained heavily juiced to the Under at -120.

Cardinals vs Pirates Picks

• Best Bet: Pirates -1.5 (+105 at BetMGM)

The Pirates enter this afternoon contest backed by a sturdy pitching staff that has compiled a 3.65 team ERA and a 1.25 WHIP, limiting opponents to a .220 batting average. That run prevention starts with Skenes, who has been nothing short of dominant.

I am backing the Pirates heavily on the runline because opposing hitters are completely overmatched against Skenes, who are managing a meager .141 average against him.

Since getting blown up with five runs against and failing to get out of the first inning against the Mets in his first start of the year, Skenes has allowed just three earned runs over his last five starts, covering 28.1 innings.

That’s a microscopic 0.95 ERA, while throwing 29 strikeouts against just five walks.

And while the bats haven’t gotten it done enough in this series, they should be able to support Skenes.At PNC Park, the Pirates’ offense has been incredibly efficient at making contact, ranking second in the majors with a .276 home batting average.

The Cardinals’ pitching staff has struggled to find its footing, posting a 4.75 team ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.

They turn to 26-year-old Hunter Dobbins, who will be making his debut with St Louis after pitching last year with the Boston Red Sox. He was 4-1 last year with a 4.13 ERA.

Fortunately, the Cardinals’ offense has set them up for the sweep, as they’ve scored at least four runs in every win so far in this set. Compare that to their previous stretch, when they had lost five of the last six, and they plated three runs or less in four times.

That goes against what the Cardinals have done most of the season: struggle to hit for average on the road. They rank 23rd in away batting average (.225). These contact struggles should spell disaster against a Pirates pitching staff that ranks second in all of baseball with a 3.65 ERA.

The Pirates have been a reliable bet when laying odds, winning 61.1% of their games as a favorite this season (11-7), and with the pitching advantage here, they should add to that record.

Cardinals vs Pirates Props

Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-136 at FanDuel)
I love backing Skenes as a pure strikeout artist. He is currently fanning batters at a rate of 9.31 strikeouts per nine innings. FanDuel prices his Over 6.5 Strikeouts at -136. Given his ability to dictate at-bats against a vulnerable visiting lineup, this presents the most mathematically sound prop on the board.

Oneil Cruz to Record an RBI (+137 at DraftKings)
If you are looking to attack the batter prop market, Oneil Cruz is the primary engine of the Pirates’ lineup. Cruz paces the team with 26 RBIs and 9 home runs. At +137 odds at DraftKings to drive in a run, there is excellent value in backing the most dangerous hitter on the Pirates to capitalize on a pitching staff that surrenders over four earned runs per game.