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- Wednesday brings another pair of First Four in Dayton
- I asked our A.I. model to craft its two best bets for the games
- See A.I. picks for Miami (OH) vs SMU, plus Prairie View A&M vs Lehigh
The First Four in Dayton, OH, continues on Wednesday with the #16 Prairie View A&M Panthers taking on the #16 Lehigh Mountain Hawks at 6:40 pm ET (winner to face South #1 Florida), followed by the #11 Miami (OH) RedHawks vs #11 SMU Mustangs at 9:10 pm ET (winner to face Midwest #6 Tennessee). Notably, SMU will be welcoming back guard BJ Edwards (12.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.9 APG, 2.3 SPG), who missed five games with an ankle injury. The senior is third on the team in scoring and second in assists and rebounds. SMU was 1-4 SU in his absence.
I fed the data for tonight’s games through Sportradar’s proprietary A.I. model, and then line shopped for the best-available price for the picks. The table below summarizes the picks and best odds.
A.I. First Four Picks – Wednesday, March 18
Based on 2025-26 regular season and 2026 conference tournament performance, Sportradar’s AI model identified significant edges in both matchups. Here are the detailed breakdowns for tonight’s featured matchups.
“Best odds” as of 12:05 am ET, March 18th. Read SBD’s guide to learn how to bet on sports in Texas.
Miami (OH) vs SMU Pick: Over 164.0 Points (-110 at Fanatics)
A.I. Reasoning: “The bookmakers have tagged this matchup with a massive 164-point total. SMU enters the contest as a significant 7-point favorite, which is a big number, and backing SMU on the moneyline at -305 offers virtually no return on investment.
Instead, the smartest play is attacking the total. When you combine Miami (OH)’s elite scoring efficiency during its perfect 31-0 regular season (and their recent 87-83 MAC tournament shootout loss) with SMU’s fast pace, the data heavily supports an over bet.”
Prairie View A&M vs Lehigh Pick: Lehigh Moneyline (-150 at Kalshi)
A.I. Reasoning: “The #16-vs-#16 matchup presents a completely different stylistic puzzle. Prairie View A&M vs Lehigh is projected to be much more of a defensive grind, evidenced by the significantly lower 143-point total. Lehigh sits as a narrow 3.5-point favorite.
When dealing with a lower-scoring affair, points come at a premium, making the 3.5-point spread a precarious number. Rather than sweating out a cover through the final buzzer, we are looking directly at the moneyline. Prairie View A&M’s 90% win rate over their last 10 games is a great storyline, but it masks a sluggish regular season. The Panthers’ 9-16 start to the regular season was underscored by defensive inefficiencies that Lehigh is built to exploit.
Lehigh is positioned perfectly to control the tempo, and backing them simply to win the game outright offers the most secure path to profit in this matchup.”
Check out SBD’s comprehensive March Madness coverage, including: