Dana White’s Contender Series Week 1 Picks: Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams Odds & Predictions

• Heavyweights Anthony Wint and Matt Adams headline DWCS Season 10 Week 1 at the Meta Apex.
• Wint enters as a massive -900 favorite with an 85.8 percent vig-free implied win probability.
• See my expert Dana White’s Contender Series Week 1 predictions, picks and odds below.

The Octagon returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Tuesday, Aug 11, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+. As a renowned breeding ground for future roster talent, this card features hungry prospects looking to secure a lucrative promotional contract.

While championship belts are not on the line, the career implications could not be higher. For Anthony Wint and Matt Adams, securing a highlight-reel finish is the ultimate goal to justify any heavy chalk status.

I am breaking down the Dana White’s Contender Series Week 1 odds to lock in my official predictions.

Dana White’s Contender Series Week 1 Odds

Bilal Hasan stands out as the biggest favorite on the entire card at a staggering -2000 on the BetMGM moneyline. Conversely, his flyweight opponent Mridul Saikia sits as the largest underdog at +950.

Adams vs. Wint Prediction

I do not see much value laying Wint’s moneyline, but the Under 1.5 is a better way to attack this fight before wider props arrive. Wint, a former New York Jets linebacker, is clearly the fighter the UFC is eyeing, and this matchup looks built for his athletic edge.

Wint will be stronger, faster and much lighter on his feet than Adams, who tends to stand flat-footed in front of opponents. The 30-year-old’s combinations can be telegraphed, but they are heavy enough to end the fight, and Adams is there to be hit. Given the current state of the UFC heavyweight division, Wint’s sheer athleticism is already enough to give most guys trouble.

Adams has already lost twice in Round 1, and this looks like another early-danger spot. I expect Wint to land something clean before this settles into a longer heavyweight fight.

• DWCS Week 1 Pick #1: Adams vs. Wint Under 1.5 (-300 at BetMGM)

Alsaghir vs. Escarrega Best Bet

Neither Fabrizio Escarrega nor Abe Alsaghir screams UFC-ready to me, but I trust Escarrega’s overall game more at this number. He brings a more diverse striking skill set and should be the one putting more volume into the fight.

There is real risk because Escarrega tends to leave his hands low, and Alsaghir has enough power to punish that. Alsaghir has enough power to warrant respect, even if he is not a true one-punch knockout artist. Still, Alsaghir’s offense is often telegraphed, and he is more comfortable countering than leading exchanges. Escarrega will not give him those opportunities to capitalize on.

Alsaghir’s limited striking game gives Escarrega a mile-wide window to take the fight he wants and dictate the pace from start to finish. If Alsaghir turns to wrestling, I still give Escarrega the edge as the cleaner technical grappler.

• DWCS Week 1 Pick #2: Fabrizio Escarrega ML (-150 at BetMGM)

Hasan vs. Saikia Pick

Bilal Hasan is the best fighter on this card by a wide margin, and I would not be surprised if he looked UFC-ready immediately. His striking is high-level, especially his kicks, and his grappling is good enough to keep him safe if the fight changes phases.

What stands out most is how well Hasan manages distance with his legs and how clearly he sees openings, both offensively and defensively. The 25-year-old always keeps the fight at his range while frustrating opponents with momentum-killing oblique kicks, side kicks and teep kicks.

Mridul Saikia has not shown he can handle that kind of pressure or speed. The Indian was finished in 37 seconds on Road to UFC last year, and his broader level of competition does not inspire confidence.

I expect Saikia to get overwhelmed quickly again, so the total is the only way I want to play this, given Hasan’s enormous moneyline price. These two fighters operate on completely different levels.

• DWCS Week 1 Pick #3: Hasan vs Saikia Under 1.5 (-475 at BetMGM)

Mulumba vs. Pagliarulo Prediction

Ananias Mulumba is wild, but he is also the more dangerous puncher in a fight that should produce plenty of clean contact. He nearly won on DWCS last year before gassing and getting badly knocked out, so the cardio concern is real, but the power is obvious.

Even with that risk, I like his explosion, timing and accuracy in this matchup. His limited striking consists of mostly hooks and overhands, but those are exactly the shots Tom Pagliarulo leaves himself open to.

Pagliarulo is bigger, yet he fights small by crouching over and giving up range. His lack of a jab comes from his complete refusal to extend any punches, instead preferring to strike almost entirely with kicks. Even then, Pagliarulo often gets too close and opens himself up to shots while throwing himself off-balance, which is a bad mix against Mulumba’s power.

Both men are hittable and neither plays much defense, so I want the fighter whose offense is more likely to change the fight with one shot. That is clearly Mulumba.

• DWCS Week 1 Pick #4: Ananias Mulumba ML (-150 at BetMGM)

Kunneman vs. Kropschot Best Bet

Jon Kunneman is a powerhouse wrestler, and once he gets to the hips, opponents usually go down and stay there. Joe Kropschot’s stance makes those entries too easy, given how upright he stands on completely flat feet.

Instead of targeting a moneyline, I like the Over 1.5 in a battle between Kunneman’s wrestling and Kropschot’s grappling. Neither fighter’s striking is UFC-level, suggesting the majority of this fight will go down on the mats.

Kunneman is an excellent takedown artist but can be sloppy on the mat, and some of his submission wins have come from being bigger and heavier rather than technical set-ups. Those only work on the regional circuit. As the best grappler Kunneman will ever face, I do not expect Kropschot to tap to the first rough position, even if he spends a lot of time in deep waters. If Kunneman slows after an early wrestling push, this can turn into a grind with long top-control stretches.

That may not be exciting, but it helps the clock. Kunneman should land takedowns, while Kropschot’s toughness and grappling keep this alive past the midway point of Round 2. Even if Kunneman gasses himself out, neither has much finishing ability on the feet, and Kropschot’s poor takedown defense will not keep him upright for too long.

• DWCS Week 1 Pick #5: Kunneman vs. Kropschot Over 1.5 (+174 at BetMGM)