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- College Gameday heads to Tuscaloosa for a ranked SEC battle.
- Can Vanderbilt shock the college football world for the second year in a row?
- Check out my Vanderbilt vs Alabama prediction and the betting odds below
Two top-20 teams face off as the Vanderbilt Commodores head to Tuscaloosa to face the Alabama Crimson Tide. No.16 Vanderbilt (5-0) and No.10 Alabama (3-1) are in the thick of the College Football Playoff picture through five weeks. Alabama plays host at 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 4th, on an ABC broadcast.
I’ve made my Vanderbilt vs Alabama prediction for Saturday and set out the betting odds with kickoff coming up.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama Prediction
There has been at least 58 points scored in each of the last three Vanderbilt-Alabama games. While Alabama provided just about all of the scoring in their 2017 and 2022 romps, I expect this iteration of Vanderbilt-Alabama to be high-scoring for both sides.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama Preview
Vanderbilt has jumped out to a shocking 5-0 start, winning road games against a decrepit Virginia Tech team and then-No.11 South Carolina to fly into the top 20 of the AP Poll. They have scored 44 or more points in four of five games en route to the No.4 scoring offense in the country. The No.16 rank is the highest Vanderbilt has been in the polls since 2008.
Quarterback Diego Pavia is the engine, heartbeat, and soul of this Vanderbilt team. In addition to his SEC-leading 13 pass touchdowns, he leads the Commodores with 294 rushing yards. The Commodores do have three backs with over 140 rushing yards, but Pavia is the straw that stirs the drink in Nashville. He is listed as low as 15-to-1 to win the Heisman.
Pavia has spread the rock around as three different pass catchers have at least 225 yards, but his favorite target is tight end Eli Stowers. Stowers is a potential Day 2 pick in the draft, and he leads the Commodores with 22 catches and 301 yards. Junior Sherrill leads the team with five touchdowns.
Alabama has had a tumultuous start to the season. As the No.8 team in the country, they had a shocking loss in Tallahassee to an unranked Florida State team in Week 1. They have since steadied the ship, clobbering Louisiana-Monroe 73-0 before decimating Wisconsin 38-14 and holding on to knock off No.5 Georgia last week.
Alabama is not exactly the juggernaut it was in the Nick Saban era, but Ty Simpson did not get the memo. He has arguably been the best quarterback in college football. He has 13 total touchdowns with zero interceptions, completing 69.3% of his passes for over 280 yards per game.
Alabama has struggled to run the football, so Simpson has been asked to shoulder the load, unlike many previous Alabama quarterbacks. That is, unless offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor is toting the rock.
Jam Miller is back in the fold in the rushing attack after missing the first three games of the season. He led Tide running backs with 668 yards last season. The receiver duo of Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams is one of the best in the country. Both players are averaging north of 75 yards per game, and they have caught a combined six touchdowns.
One key matchup to watch is Vanderbilt’s offensive line versus Alabama’s pass rushers. According to PFF, Vanderbilt is 67th out of 68 Power 4 schools in pass-blocking grade, while Alabama is 65th in pass-rush grade. If either unit has any hope of succeeding this season, this is the week to take advantage of a healthy matchup.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama Betting Odds
The sportsbooks have Alabama as home favorites with the total between 56 and 56.5. Over bettors can get over 56 for -110 odds at Fanatics. Under bettors can get under 56.5 at BetMGM for -105 odds.
Alabama bettors should take them -10.5 at FanDuel (-110 odds) or -375 on the moneyline, also at FanDuel. Vanderbilt bettors should take them +10.5 at DraftKings (-108 odds) or +340 on the moneyline, also at DraftKings.
Odds as of Sept. 30 at top-rated college football betting apps.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama, Last Five Matchups
Alabama has dominated the Commodores, posting an official record of 63-19-4* in a series dating back to 1903. Before last season, Vanderbilt had not outscored Alabama since 1984, with 1993 being a win by forfeit.
Last season’s battle was an instant classic. Vanderbilt jumped out to a 23-7 lead and staved off the Tide after they cut the lead to two points at 23-21 and 30-28. Diego Pavia had a gritty game with 300 total yards and two touchdowns in a winning effort.
*Alabama vacated wins in 2006 and 2007, and their 1993 “win” is in the record books as a forfeit. Some sources have their record versus Vanderbilt as 60-20-4.
