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- England are slight favourites and chasing a first World Cup final since 1966, but their defence keeps starting slow.
- Argentina are the reigning champions, lead the tournament in scoring, and have never lost a World Cup semi-final.
- See my England vs Argentina odds, picks and predictions, plus Bet99’s boosts and the latest injury news.
Jump to: ODDS || PICKS || H2H || INJURIES
A spot in the final is on the line as England meet Argentina at Atlanta Stadium. Kickoff for this World Cup semi-final is 3:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, July 15. The old rivals have not met at a World Cup since 2002, and they have never met this late in one.
Argentina arrive as reigning champions on a 13-match winning streak, having beaten Switzerland 3-1 in extra time. Lionel Messi leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals. England needed extra time of their own to see off Norway 2-1, with Jude Bellingham scoring twice. He and Harry Kane sit on six apiece.
The market is razor thin, and oddsmakers give Thomas Tuchel’s side a small edge over Lionel Scaloni’s champions. I think that is a mistake. Here are my odds, picks and predictions, plus the latest injury news.
England vs Argentina Odds
The England vs Argentina odds are as tight as a semi-final gets. England sit at +160 on the three-way moneyline, Argentina at +200, and the draw at +190. Strip out the juice and England land at 36.2%, the draw at 32.4%, and Argentina at 31.4%.
A $20 bet on England returns $52 total. That same $20 on Argentina pays $60. Both teams to score is priced dead even at -115 either way, which says plenty about how open this one looks.
Bet99 is also running two boosts for this one. England to reach the final is up to +100, and Messi to score inside 120 minutes sits at +175. Compare more numbers on our World Cup match odds page before you bet.
England vs Argentina Picks, Predictions & Goalscorer Props
My England vs Argentina picks fade the defensive read baked into these lines. I want the champions, and I want goals.
Moneyline Pick: Argentina (+200)
Betslip #1784131322777-481c-682
England have a first-half problem. Five of the six goals they have conceded this tournament came before the break, which is 83.3% of their damage in one window.
Argentina are built to punish that. They have given up one first-half goal all summer and hold 58.67% possession, so they can grab the ball and the tempo early. Getting a 13-match winner as an underdog is my favourite number on the board.
Total-Goals Pick: Over 2.5 (+140)
Betslip #1784131351585-481c-688
Plus-money on the over is a gift here. Argentina’s games average 3.83 total goals and England’s sit at 3.16, and the two sides have combined for 187 shots.
Both squads are stacked with World Cup Golden Boot odds contenders who need half a chance. Messi, Kane and Bellingham have 20 tournament goals between them.
Goalscorer Pick: Jude Bellingham (+300)
If England trail early, they abandon the safety-first shape, and that lifts Bellingham’s shot volume. He already has six goals, including the brace that beat Norway.
His late runs into the box arrive behind Argentina’s centre-backs rather than through them. Bet99 prices him at +300 to score inside 120 minutes, and that is a steal for England’s most dangerous attacker. New to the book? Grab the Bet99 promo code first.
England vs Argentina Team Stats & Recent Form
These squads mirror each other in the middle of the pitch. Both rank inside the tournament’s top 10 in possession, and both concede exactly 1.00 goal per game.
The split is in the finishing and the timing. England put more shots on target per game, 7.50 to 6.33, yet Argentina lead the whole tournament at 2.83 goals per match. La Albiceleste also protect the first half far better, conceding 0.17 per game to England’s 0.83.
England vs Argentina Head-to-Head
The England vs Argentina head-to-head runs 14 games deep, and England lead it six wins to three with five draws. This is their sixth World Cup meeting and the first in a semi-final.
England won the 1962 group game 3-1 and the 1966 quarter-final 1-0. Argentina answered with Diego Maradona’s 2-1 “Hand of God” win in 1986 and a shootout in 1998. David Beckham’s penalty settled the last World Cup meeting in 2002.
The sides have not played since a 2005 friendly, which England won 3-2 on two late Michael Owen headers. Messi was suspended for that one, so this is his first crack at England.
England vs Argentina Injury Report
The England vs Argentina injury report favours the champions. Jordan Henderson is out after wrist surgery, and Jarell Quansah serves the last game of a two-match ban for his red card against Mexico.
That keeps England’s right-back puzzle alive. Ezri Konsa or Djed Spence should fill in, with Reece James unlikely to start.
Declan Rice is the good news. He came off at half-time against Norway with a sickness bug but has shaken it off and should start.
Argentina have no suspensions and no injuries. Messi took a cut to the eye against Switzerland and is fine, while Cristian Romero’s early exit was fatigue, not a knock. Scaloni has everyone.
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