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- Penn State and Northwestern clash in their Big Ten Tournament opener
- The Wildcats are 5.5 point favorites after beating the Nittany Lions earlier this year
- See what team the public is back on the moneyline, spread and totals
The Penn State Nittany Lions (12-19, 3-17 Big Ten, 12-19-0 ATS) and Northwestern Wildcats (13-18, 5-15 Big Ten, 13-16-2 ATS) are set to battle in the first round of the 2026 Big Ten Tournament on Tuesday evening, with a win-or-go-home mandate for two struggling squads. Unsurprisingly, neither are projected to be among the 2026 NCAA Tournament teams to do any damage in the March Madness championship odds, with both gargantuan +100000 longshots.
How to Watch Penn State vs Northwestern
Tip-off for Penn State/Northwestern is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday, March 10, at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, with live coverage on Peacock. Though it’s a neutral site game, it’s a de facto home game for the Wildcats, given that it’s in the Windy City.
Northwestern smashed Penn State in the regular season on January 29th by a score of 94-73, led by Nick Martinelli’s season-high tying 34 points. He’s seventh in the country, scoring 22.7 PPG, recording at least 20 points in 23 of 30 outings. After a modest five-point lead at halftime, the Wildcats pulled away, outscoring their adversaries by 16 points in the final frame.
Penn State vs Northwestern Picks, Predictions & Best Bets
On neutral courts this season, Penn State was 1-2 for a rating of -4.3, while their counterparts were 1-3, but had a rating of +7.7.
PSU vs NU Moneyline Spread Pick: Northwestern -5.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Northwestern can take advantage of an extremely suspect Penn State defense, that’s allowed 79.5 PPG, 306th in the country. Their trio of Nick Martinelli, Jordan Clayton and Jake West have all shot over 39% on the campaign from downtown. This will allow them to put up points in droves versus a Nittany Lions team that’s surrendered nearly ten three pointers per duel (9.8), with only twelve other schools coughing up more.
Seven of Penn State’s last eight losses have come by double digit points. That includes the 94-73 debacle in January. In nearly every metric, NU is superior, and Penn State has been on a lengthy tailspin, dropping 18 of 22 after starting the season 8-1. The Wildcats haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders either, losing 13 of 18, but statistically, I trust them more for this skirmish.
Nittany Lions vs Wildcats H2H Statistics
The Wildcats have the edge on the Nittany Lions in most statistical categories, including much more assists per outing, fewer turnovers, and a stronger strength of schedule and RPI ranking.
Penn State vs Northwestern Odds
In the college basketball odds, Northwestern is a 5.5 point favorite, with a -250 price tag on the moneyline at FanDuel. The total is set at 143.5 points.
The implied win probability of the Wildcats at -250 is 71.4%. You’d need to wager $250 on the favorites to win $100, while a $100 bet on the underdogs clears $202 in this Penn State vs Northwestern contest. Our SBD model has Northwestern winning 76.8-73.4 and the over 143.5 total being hit.
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Updated odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 2:15 p.m. ET on March 10th
Penn State vs Northwestern Public-Betting Trends & Splits
When analyzing the college basketball public betting data, evaluating the divergence between ticket percentages (public sentiment) and stake percentages (actual financial liability) is essential to finding an edge.
PSU vs NU Spread-Betting Splits
Retail bettors are massively favoring the Wildcats to cover. Looking at the spread splits, 93% of the betting tickets are on Northwestern, with 94% of the handle on them also. By contrast, only 7% of tickets and 6% of the money are laying the points with Penn State. The belief in NU dovetails with my selection of them covering the 5.5 spread.
Penn State vs Northwestern Moneyline-Betting Splits
Unsurprisingly, the outright winner market shows a massive proclivity towards NU. 97% of wagers and 98% of the money is on the favorites, with the public not in any way trusting PSU to pull off the upset.
Nittany Lions vs Wildcats Total-Betting Splits
Even the over/under market is skewed heavily one way, with 89% of bets and 90% of the money directed towards the over 143.5 combined points being scored.
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