Expert Picks & Predictions for Phillies vs Cubs (Apr 21)

• Shota Imanaga (2.46 ERA) outdueled Jesús Luzardo last week in an 11-2 Cubs win
• Why backing the Cubs Moneyline is the premier play
• See our best bets for Phillies at Cubs on April 21

The reeling Phillies have lost 6 consecutive games, matching their longest losing streak since 2021. Three of those losses were against the Cubs, including a 5-1 setback Monday night at Wrigley Field.

Tonight, Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo (1-3, 7.94 ERA) will try to end the skid against Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga (1-1, 2.45). They squared off a week ago in Philly, with Imanaga pitching the Cubs to an 11-2 victory. Luzardo was chased after allowing 8 ER in 5.1 innings.

The game starts at 7:45 pm, ET, and will be broadcast on MLB.TV, which is part of each Fubo TV subscription.

We break down the pitching matchup, key trends and stats, and deliver the best bets for Phillies at Cubs on April 21.

Phillies vs Cubs Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds and is subject to change

The most notable shifts from the opening numbers have occurred in the total and runline markets. The total runs line opened at a flat 8.0 but has since been bumped up to 8.5. With Luzardo battling command issues, oddsmakers were forced to adjust the total up a critical half-run to account for heavy action on a high-scoring affair. Additionally, the opening runline heavily juiced the home side at +1.5 (-205), but that price has since shortened to -189, reflecting the massive influx of moneyline support that is fading a sluggish road offense.

Phillies vs Cubs Predictions & Best Bets

Pick #1: Cubs Moneyline (-125 at BetMGM)

When evaluating this matchup, the starting pitching disparity creates a glaring situational advantage for the home team. The Cubs send Imanaga to the rubber, and the southpaw has been effectively unhittable, utilizing elite command and swing-and-miss stuff to post a 2.46 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP across 22.0 innings pitched. On the bump for the visitors, Luzardo has labored immensely, logging a 7.94 ERA while consistently allowing traffic on the basepaths.

Chicago has been highly profitable when backed in this exact situational spot, boasting a 71.4% win rate as a betting favorite over their last 10 games (5-2 record). Conversely, Philadelphia has completely flatlined when catching runs, sporting a 0.0% win percentage as an underdog (0-3 record) this season. Given these concrete trends and a massive rotational edge, backing the Cubs Moneyline (-120 at BetMGM) is the premier play for tonight’s contest.

Pick #2: Over 8.5 Runs (-115 at BetMGM)

With the Phillies yielding nearly eight earned runs per nine innings during Luzardo’s starts, bettors should also target the Over 8.5 Total Runs (-117 at BetMGM). Luzardo’s ongoing command issues provide the perfect recipe for a high-scoring affair.

For player props, Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-109 at BetMGM) provides excellent value. Hoerner went 3-for-5 with a home run against Luzardo and the Phillies’ bullpen last week. Hoerner is batting .322 with a .902 OPS and is currently averaging 1.27 hits per game. He is perfectly positioned to capitalize on Luzardo’s vulnerability and notch a multi-base hit performance.

Shota Imanaga vs Jesús Luzardo 2026 Stats

Jesus Luzardo vs Cubs

Cubs Hitters vs Luzardo

Imanaga vs Phillies

Phillies Hitters vs Imanaga

Phillies vs Cubs Home/Road Team Stats Comparison

Public Betting Splits & Handle Analysis

Understanding MLB public betting trends helps find value.

In the moneyline market, bettors are fading the road underdog:

• Cubs: 80.5% of tickets | 95.7% of money
• Phillies: 19.5% of tickets | 4.3% of money

The data reveals an overwhelming wave of support. Capturing 95.7% of the financial handle strongly reinforces our official prediction to back the moneyline favorite. Bettors are clearly anticipating Imanaga to continue his dominant start while Luzardo’s early-season struggles persist.

This confidence extends directly into the runline market:

• Cubs: 87.8% of tickets | 84.3% of money
• Phillies: 12.2% of tickets | 15.7% of money

The expected offensive ceiling for this matchup has also generated heavily one-sided action on the total runs market:

• OVER: 83.7% of tickets | 79.0% of money
• UNDER: 16.3% of tickets | 21.0% of money

Capturing 79.0% of the overall money, the Over is the definitive public play, perfectly aligning with the expectation that bats will exploit bloated ERAs and steady base traffic.

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