Expert Picks, Predictions & Props to Bet in Cubs vs Brewers Game 5

• The Chicago Cubs visit the Milwaukee Brewers in a do-or-die Game 5 in Milwaukee
• The Brewers haven’t scored a run in 11 innings, but piled up 16 at home in Games 1 and 2
• Below, see my Cubs vs Brewers picks, predictions, and props to bet plus the latest odds for Game 5

Homefield advantage has held in every games of the series so far, and now the Chicago Cubs (92-70, 42-39 away) and Milwaukee Brewers (97-65, 52-29 home) will clash in a decisive Game 5 of the NLDS on Saturday, October 10th, at American Family Field. The only MLB playoff game on the docket today, first pitch is scheduled for 7:08 pm CT/8:08 pm ET.

The series has been a tale of two halves: Milwaukee dominated the first two contests with an offensive barrage (9-3, 7-3), while Chicago’s pitching staff controlled Games 3 and 4 at Wrigley (4-3, 6-0).

Neither team has named its Game 5 starter. Both bullpens are expected to feature heavily after an off-day on Friday. Milwaukee has been one of the best home teams in baseball all season and has the better overall bullpen, which is a big part of why the Cubs/Brewers Game 5 odds slightly favor Milwaukee.

I have set out my Cubs vs Brewers picks, best bets, and player props to target, plus the latest CHI/MIL odds for Game 5.

Jump to: CHC vs MIL PICKS || CHC vs MIL PLAYER PROPS || LATEST GAME 5 ODDS

MIL Brewers vs CHI Cubs Picks & Predictions (Game 5)

• Cubs moneyline (+125) at bet365
• Under 7.5 runs (-110) at FanDuel
• Nico Hoerner over 1.5 total bases (+139) at Underdog

The Brewers are sizable favorites and their 52-29 record at American Family Field – plus another two wins in the postseason – is indicative of a lineup that feasts on home cooking. But Milwaukee has done the bulk of its damage this series off of Chicago starters, not the Cub bullpen, and the Brewers are likely to see a long line of red-hot Chicago relievers in Game 5.

The Cubs’ pen has a 2.27 postseason ERA while eating up 39.2 innings over the first seven playoff games. The Milwaukee pen has been even better, runs-wise (1.23 ERA in 22.0 IP) but they were also taxed more heavily in Games 3 and 4, combining to throw 11.1 innings compared to 9.1 for the Cubbies.

With a rest day on Friday, fatigue shouldn’t be a big issue for either relief staff, but the fact remains that Chicago’s has had less to do lately.

The Brewers have gone into an offensive paralysis over the last 11-plus innings, and sharp money appreast to be siding with Chicago in the MLB public betting splits (just over 40% of moneyline handle on slightly more than 30% of ML wagers).

I’m not suggesting the Cubs deserve to be favored on the road in Game 5, but they are priced at significant plus-money (as long as +125), which amounts to just a % implied win probability in a game that should be priced close to a toss-up.

I’m also betting red-hot Nico Hoerner (.419 avg in 28 postseason ABs) to go over 1.5 in the total bases props at +139 odds. Hoerner has had multiple hits in three straight games and homered in Game 1 of the series. Altogether, he’s gone over 1.5 total bases in five straight games.

Brewers vs Cubs Player Props

MLB player props as of October 11.

Christian Yelich’s total-bases line of 1.5 at plus-money (+115) is tempting for a lead-off hitter with massive power. On the Cubs’ side, Kyle Tucker’s hits prop is set at 0.5 with heavy -168 juice on the over, reflecting his consistent production. Better value may lie in his runs-scored prop at 0.5 (+125), as he’s a constant threat to get on base and score in a potent lineup.

No pitcher props have been released yet as neither team has named a starter.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Odds

The current Cubs/Brewers moneyline lists Milwaukee at -142 or shorter, with FanDuel currently offering the best price. The Cubs are as long as +125 at bet365 and ESPN Bet. Without the vig, the moneyline odds give the Brewers a 57.1% implied win probability, compared to just 42.9% for the visitors.

The run total is sitting at 7.5 across the board, and most books have the odds at -110 each way. Over bettors can get a slightly better price (-108) at DraftKings.

Odds commentary as of 12:25 pm ET. The MLB odds in the table, above, will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the lines move before first pitch at 8:08 pm ET.

MIL vs CHC Odds Movement for Game 5

The betting line has seen notable movement toward the home team. The Brewers opened at -132 and have been bet up as high as -149, a significant 17-cent shift. Conversely, the Cubs opened at +109 and have faded as far as +125.

The total has remained steady at 7.5 runs, with only minor juice adjustments. The MLB public betting splits show a heavy lean on the over (74% of O/U handle and a massive 88% of O/U wagers), yet books haven’t really moved the line, which indicates that the books themselves are taking a position on the under.

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