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The reigning FIFA World Cup champions Argentina got squared in Group J at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and have three surmountable opponents: Austria, Jordan, and Algeria.
Read on to find out why Lionel Scaloni’s men should cruise into the Round of 32, on their toes to avoid an upset loss like the one they suffered against Saudi Arabia in Qatar 2022.
Odds to Win Group J (2026 World Cup)
With odds of -257 and an implied probability of 72%, Argentina have one of the shortest odds to win their group before the start of the tournament. Only Spain (-376) and Brazil (-270) have shorter odds to win their respective groups. Part of that can be attributed to their status as current World Cup champions, but the opponents they’ll face in the group stage also play a large role in those odds.
Austria (+400) and Algeria (+900) are next, with implied probabilities of 20 and 10 percent, respectively. Jordan (+9900) not only should be considered a non-factor, but they’re a team bound to struggle to even score a single goal — let alone think about a hypothetical berth in the Round of 32. Seeing Jordan move past the group stage would be one of the biggest surprises in World Cup history.
Odds and prices as of June 6 at Kalshi. If you don’t live in a Kalshi region, check out SBD’s list of top World Cup betting sites.
Understanding Argentina’s Short Oodds to Win Group J
Argentina feature one of the deepest squads in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the World Cup public betting data absolutely loves them as one of the favorites to go all the way and repeat as champions, something that hasn’t been done since Brazil achieved it in the 1958 and 1962 editions. La Albiceleste ranks fifth in bet% and handle%, meaning they’re among the top picks among bettors but a tick below the consensus two contenders, France and Spain. Argentina cruised their way in the CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifiers, ending in first place with an impressive W12, D2, L4 record, scoring the most goals (31) and conceding the second-fewest (10).
The -257 odds indicate that any result other than a first-place finish for Argentina would be a massive shock. Austria are returning to the World Cup for the first time since France 1998, Jordan will be making their debut in the tournament, and Algeria aren’t even among the top teams in the CAF region. While an upset or two in the World Cup game odds can’t be ruled out, neither of these teams is even close to Argentina in terms of individual or collective talent.
Lionel Messi remains their best player despite being 38 years old, but it would be foolish to rule him from any types of World Cup prop bets and the World Cup Golden Boot odds. He has 13 goals in his World Cup resume, and he’s only three away from tying Miroslav Klose as the all-time top scorer in the competition — another record he’ll chase in 2026.
The secondary stars all thrive in some of the best leagues in the world. Enzo Fernández is one of the best midfielders in the Premier League while being one of the club captains at Chelsea. Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez shine in Italy and Spain, respectively, for Inter Milan and Atlético Madrid. Alexis Mac Allister shines in Liverpool’s midfield, and the defensive line features Premier League stalwarts Lisandro Martínez and Cristian Romero, though the latter is dealing with a knee injury. Emiliano Martínez (finger) is also a doubt.
Fitness will be key for Argentina’s chances of making a deep run in the tournament, as they should be considered among the biggest candidates in the World Cup winner odds. But in terms of finishing at the top of Group J, even a depleted Argentina team should be good enough to overtake the trio of Austria, Algeria and Jordan.
Austrian Upset Potential in Group J
Austria and Algeria might be similar in terms of their qualifying odds, and their meeting on June 27 will be pivotal in determining which team will advance straight to the Round of 32 alongside Argentina. But if you’re interested in learning how to pick World Cup underdogs, Austria could fit that mold.
They have a decent collection of talent, experience in names such as David Alaba (Real Madrid), Marcel Sabitzer (Borussia Dortmund) and Marko Arnautovic (Red Star Belgrade). They reached the 2026 World Cup by winning Group H in the UEFA Qualifying Round, thanks to a W6, D1, L1 record in a tough group alongside the likes of Romania and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Their chances of pulling off the upset will hinge on defeating Algeria and Jordan and salvaging a draw against Argentina. The chances are slim, but they could be a popular underdog, particularly if Argentina endure a slow start in the group stage.
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