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- The Philadelphia Phillies are large -200 home favorites when they open a 3-game set vs the Miami Marlins on Monday
- The Phillies took three of four from Miami in May
- Read below for the my Marlins vs Phillies prediction, latest odds and prop picks
The surging Miami Marlins (36-36) will open a 3-game set Monday against the Philadelphia Phillies (38-32), in a battle of NL East rivals.
Despite the Marlins having won 10 of their last 12, the books still like the Phillies at home in the MLB odds, which likely has to do with Philly taking three of four against Miami in their first meeting this season.
First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, in a game that can be seen live nationally on MLB TV.
Marlins vs Phillies Odds
The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Use theScore Bet promo code to wager on Marlins vs Phillies and other MLB action.
The Phillies enter as a steep -200 moneyline favorite at BetMGM, directly reflecting the MLB probable pitchers mismatch (which we’ll discuss below). To find more palatable payouts, I am looking toward the runline market, where the Phillies sit at +108 at FanDuel to win by multiple runs.
The Marlins have done a lot of winning lately, so getting them at +177 odds to win outright at DraftKings is enticing. They’re also getting a 1.5 run cushion at bet365, which offers decent -120 odds.
The game total opened at 7.5 and remains static.
MIA Marlins vs PHI Phillies Prediction
- Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (+100 at Caesars)
The most glaring advantage lies on the mound. The Phillies hand the ball to ace Zack Wheeler (5-1, 2.22 ERA), who averages 6.30 innings per start with an elite 0.85 WHIP.
The Marlins counter with Ryan Gusto (1-1, 4.50 ERA), who averages just 3.00 innings per start. Over his last 10 appearances, Gusto’s ERA has ballooned to 6.00 with opposing hitters batting .289. Wheeler, meanwhile, holds a 2.22 ERA and a flawless 0.85 WHIP over his last 10 outings.
The Marlins have a healthy track record against Wheeler. Otto Lopez has recorded five hits in 12 at-bats (.417 AVG) against him, but Wheeler largely overpowers the bottom half of their roster. Conversely, only Adolis García (1-for-2) has faced Gusto among active Phillies batters, giving the home lineup a fresh look at the spot-starter.
Evaluating how both teams profile uncovers advantages beyond the starting pitching. The Phillies average 1.36 home runs per game at home compared to 0.85 on the road for the Marlins. This power dynamic is heavily supported by an 89.3 mph average exit velocity for the Phillies.
The Marlins possess an advantage on the basepaths, averaging 1.15 stolen bases per away game. However, their reliance on sequencing hits rather than slugging plays right into Wheeler’s ability to generate swing-and-miss outs.
Backed by Wheeler’s efficiency and Gusto’s inability to pitch deep into games, the Phillies hold a distinct edge. I expect their potent lineup to capitalize early and force a heavily taxed bullpen into action well before the middle innings.
Marlins vs Phillies Props
Zack Wheeler Over 18.5 Pitching Outs (+135 at DraftKings): Wheeler averages 6.30 innings per start. Backing him to record 19 outs offers tremendous payout value against a contact-heavy lineup.
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+129 at DraftKings): Harper is slugging .496 with an .860 OPS. Given Gusto’s penchant for allowing base traffic, getting plus-money for Harper to record multiple bases is an attractive edge.
Over 7.5 Runs (-110 at Caesars): Harper is slugging .496 with an .860 OPS. Given Gusto’s penchant for allowing base traffic, getting plus-money for Harper to record multiple bases is an attractive edge.