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- Georgia State hosts South Alabama at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
- Both the Jaguars and Panthers enter this game with 1-6 records
- See our expert South Alabama vs Georgia State prediction & line for Thursday’s Sun Belt Showdown
One of these teams will finally notch their second win of the season when Georgia State hosts South Alabama. Both the Jaguars and Panthers enter this matchup at 1-6 overall with no conference victories. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, with coverage on ESPN2.
Something has to give in this basement battle. Let’s dive into my South Alabama vs. Georgia State prediction and break down the best bets for Thursday’s Sun Belt showdown.
South Alabama vs Georgia State Prediction
Georgia State enters on a four-game skid that includes a 70-point blowout loss at Vanderbilt and back-to-back games allowing 41 points. Their lone competitive effort came in a 14-7 defeat to James Madison.
The question for our prediction: can the Panthers finally tighten up defensively, or will South Alabama’s offense find similar success?
Statistically, South Alabama hasn’t been much better. The Jaguars rank 93rd in offensive EPA and 78th in success rate, though they’ve been respectable on the ground—37th in rush EPA and 56th in rush success rate.
Defensively, they’ve struggled mightily. South Alabama ranks 131st in defensive success rate and 112th in EPA per play, including 133rd in rush EPA allowed and 130th in rush success rate. They’ve surrendered at least one rushing touchdown in every game this year.
That’s excellent news for senior running back Kentrel Bullock, who’s primed for a huge night. Bullock has logged 124 carries for 568 yards (4.6 YPC) and six touchdowns through seven games.
His rushing prop sits around 85.5 yards, with touchdown odds heavily juiced between -250 and -330. Given Georgia State’s inability to stop the run, this prediction likes his chances to go over.
Lead backs are averaging 83 rushing yards per game against the Panthers. With South Alabama favored by 6.5 points, game script should provide plenty of late carries to control the clock.
Georgia State Offensive Outlook
On the flip side, Georgia State’s offense faces a South Alabama defense that’s far from dominant—ranking 100th in EPA per play and 99th in success rate. The Panthers aren’t particularly explosive either, but their passing game has been their best weapon.
Led by the tandem of Cameran Brown and TJ Finley, Georgia State ranks 36th in EPA per pass play. Last week, Brown handled all the snaps and shined, completing 29 of 38 passes (76%) for 280 yards and a touchdown.
Brown also rushed 15 times for 120 yards and a score against Georgia Southern. We should expect a heavy dose of Brown under center this evening, as he’s proven to be the more capable option for Georgia State.
South Alabama vs Georgia State Final Prediction & Best Bet
I expect the Jaguars to control this game on the ground, which initially leads me toward South Alabama covering as a 6.5-point favorite.
However, with both defenses being abysmal and Georgia State playing the better dual-threat quarterback, the spread doesn’t offer enough edge. There isn’t sufficient value to either lay or take the points given how unreliable both squads have been this season.
My preferred play for this prediction is Kentrel Bullock over his rushing yards prop, as he should be the focal point of South Alabama’s offense this evening. Against a Georgia State defense that’s been gashed on the ground all season, that’s an edge we can count on.
Best Bet:
- Kentrel Bullock Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Jaguars vs Panthers Line
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 11:15 am ET
South Alabama’s -230 moneyline translates to a 69.7% implied probability of victory, while Georgia State’s +190 gives them just a 34.5% chance. Despite both teams carrying identical 1-6 records, the betting market sees a clear favorite in this Thursday night matchup.
The total of 54.5 points reflects both defenses ranking outside the top 100 nationally. With the over and under both sitting at -110, the implied probability is 52.4% for each side, suggesting the books view this total as perfectly balanced.
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