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- Andrea Kimi Antonelli headlines our betting card with plus-money odds against teammate George Russell.
- Temperatures could make reliability one of the biggest storylines over Sunday’s 71-lap race.
- Read below for F1 Austrian Grand Prix predictions, best bets and winner odds.
I’m still on vacation, which means this article is being filed from a secluded cabin in the Tennessee mountains.
Cell service has been questionable, the black bears have been plentiful, and after forgetting my laptop charger, I paid an overnight shipping fee that I’m hoping today’s betting card can reimburse.
If this article made it to my editor, I’d like to thank modern technology.
If it didn’t, I’ll be on the roof of the cabin wrapped in aluminum foil trying to improve the signal.
Fortunately, finding value in the betting market has been a little easier than finding a reliable cell tower.
Lewis Hamilton heads to Austria fresh off the first Ferrari victory of his career, ending Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s remarkable five-race winning streak. Outside of Antonelli’s dominant stretch, Formula 1 has been one of the most unpredictable championships in recent memory.
Temperatures have been soaring throughout the weekend, and reliability could become just as important as outright speed over Sunday’s 71 laps. With that in mind, here’s where our model sees value.
F1 Austrian Grand Prix Winner Odds
Odds available at DraftKings as of 11:24 p.m. ET on June 27. George Russell is the favorite to win the Austrian Grand Prix at +150, implying a 40.00% chance of victory. Check out the best F1 betting apps for the top Austrian Grand Prix odds. Lights out is set for 9:00 a.m. ET on Apple TV.
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F1 Austrian Grand Prix Predictions & Best Bets
Esteban Ocon over Oliver Bearman (+330 at DraftKings)
This is a price play.
Our model projects Bearman to finish 14.1 on average compared to 14.9 for Ocon. That’s less than one finishing position separating the two Haas teammates, yet the betting market is pricing this matchup as if Bearman should dominate it.
We don’t see it that way.
Ocon also starts just two spots behind Bearman, leaving plenty of opportunities for strategy, pit stops, or a timely Safety Car to flip the running order.
At +330, we don’t need Ocon to win very often for this bet to show long-term value.
Alexander Albon over Carlos Sainz (+175 at DraftKings)
Williams has been one of the tougher teams to separate this season, but our model gives Albon the edge.
Albon is projected to finish 16.1 on average compared to 16.2 for Sainz. That’s essentially a coin flip, yet the market is offering plus money on the driver our model slightly prefers.
We’ll gladly take that number.
Charles Leclerc over Lewis Hamilton (-145 at DraftKings)
Hamilton is coming off the first Ferrari victory of his career, but we’ll side with Leclerc this weekend.
Our model projects Leclerc to finish fourth on average compared to 4.1 for Hamilton, so there isn’t much separating the two Ferrari teammates.
Historically, Hamilton also hasn’t dominated his teammates at the Red Bull Ring the way he has at some other circuits. In fact, Valtteri Bottas won the Austrian Grand Prix twice during their time together at Mercedes.
Leclerc starts one position ahead of Hamilton, giving him the preferred track position entering Turn 1. In a matchup this close, that’s enough for us to lay a little juice.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli over George Russell (+170 at theScore Bet)
This is our favorite plus-money play on the board.
Antonelli has consistently shown stronger race pace than Russell throughout the season and appeared to be on a pole-winning lap before Max Verstappen’s late qualifying incident created enough confusion for him to abandon the effort.
Getting through both Ferraris and Russell to secure the preferred pit sequence won’t be easy, but that’s exactly why we’re getting +170.
Our model projects Russell to finish 2.3 on average and Antonelli 2.5. That’s a much smaller gap than these odds imply, making this an easy bet to add to the card.
Nico Hulkenberg over Gabriel Bortoleto (+160 at theScore Bet)
This matchup comes down to price and reliability.
Our model projects Hulkenberg to finish 11.6 on average compared to 12.5 for Bortoleto, making this teammate matchup much closer than the odds suggest.
Then there’s Audi.
The cars have developed an unfortunate habit of turning routine racing incidents into catastrophic mechanical failures. With temperatures expected to punish every component on the grid, we’d rather back the veteran at plus money than trust Audi to make life easy for either driver.
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