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- Three plus-money matchups for Sunday at the Hungaroring.
- Why Ferrari’s weekend pace creates value on Charles Leclerc.
- Read below for F1 Hungarian Grand Prix predictions and winner odds at the Hungaroring.
The Hungaroring is Monaco without the walls, which is convenient for drivers who enjoy technical misery but prefer their mistakes without a repair bill resembling the GDP of Luxembourg.
Ferrari’s performance at Monaco made it an organization to watch this weekend. Lewis Hamilton finished second there, with Charles Leclerc also running near the front. The Scuderia has carried that low-speed strength into Hungary, leading each of Friday’s practice sessions before Hamilton missed pole position by only 0.012 seconds.
Lando Norris ultimately secured pole, but penalties moved Leclerc onto the front row, Oscar Piastri into third and Kimi Antonelli back to seventh. Those adjustments have created three plus-money matchups worth targeting for Sunday’s 70-lap race.
The Hungarian Grand Prix begins Sunday at 9:00 a.m. ET on Apple TV.
F1 Hungarian Grand Prix Winner Odds
Odds from Kalshi ahead of Sunday’s race at the Hungaroring. New to prediction markets? Lock in our Kalshi referral code, and see how the top prediction markets price the Hungarian Grand Prix.
F1 Hungarian Grand Prix Predictions
Charles Leclerc over Lando Norris (+135 at theScore Bet)
The model gives Norris an average projected finish of 2.67 compared to Leclerc’s 3.05. That makes Norris the appropriate favorite, but the 0.38-position difference is not large enough to justify the gap between the sportsbook’s prices.
Leclerc’s +135 odds carry an implied probability of only 42.6%. He does not need to project ahead of Norris for this wager to offer value. He only needs to win the matchup more frequently than the market suggests.
Ferrari may also possess the superior race car.
Leclerc led FP1 before Hamilton headed a Ferrari one-two in FP2. Hamilton remained second in FP3 and came within 0.012 seconds of taking pole. Ferrari’s speed has been present across different temperatures, fuel loads and tire compounds, indicating something more sustainable than a single heroic qualifying lap.
Our preferred scenario has Leclerc taking the lead into Turn 1. However, the bet will not need last rites if Norris leads the opening lap. Leclerc could take control later in the opening stint or move ahead during the first pit sequence, provided Ferrari’s strategy department does not respond to the situation by drawing suggestions from a decorative fruit bowl.
We expect Leclerc to capture the lead early enough to control the race. Norris owns the slightly better model projection, but +135 provides enough compensation to back the Ferrari.
Liam Lawson over Arvid Lindblad (+175, Fanatics)
This is the largest disagreement between the model and the betting market.
Lawson starts 11th, two positions behind Lindblad, but is projected to finish 9.88 compared to Lindblad’s 10.74. The model favors Lawson by 0.86 positions, yet Fanatics prices him like he wins the matchup only 36.4% of the time.
Both drivers have essentially equal equipment, but Lawson completed the more productive weekend.
He finished 10th in FP1, seventh in FP2 and ninth in FP3. Lindblad reached Q3 but completed only six laps during final practice after a power-unit change kept him in the garage for most of the session. That left the rookie with substantially less long-run preparation for a race in which tire management will be critical.
Lindblad’s ninth-place starting position is valuable at a circuit where completing a pass occasionally requires written permission from the Hungarian government and two forms of identification. Lawson, however, has demonstrated enough pace to remain close and owns more potential to improve from his starting spot.
This should be priced much closer to a coin flip. Receiving +175 on the driver favored by the model makes Lawson the best pure value of the three plays.
Oscar Piastri over Kimi Antonelli (+125 at theScore Bet)
Piastri starts third after the penalties, while Antonelli falls to seventh. The model projects Piastri to finish 4.24 compared to Antonelli’s 4.86, giving the McLaren driver advantages in both starting position and expected finish.
Despite that, Piastri remains available at +125.
His qualifying result may also undersell his actual speed. Piastri had his final Q3 attempt compromised by Hamilton, who was penalized for impeding the McLaren. Piastri was also playing catch-up after sitting out FP1 and spending part of Friday’s FP2 running on McLaren’s previous floor specification. Both McLarens received the updated package for Saturday.
Antonelli showed front-running speed in FP3, but Mercedes has struggled to consistently convert its straight-line strength into performance around the Hungaroring’s technical layout. His penalty also leaves Russell, Hamilton, Verstappen and Piastri between him and the front row. That is less a clear path forward and more the checkout line at Costco on a Saturday afternoon.
Piastri does not need to beat Norris or Leclerc for this wager to cash. He simply needs to protect most of his four-position advantage over Antonelli. At plus money, that is an attractive assignment.
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Looking for the best places to bet the Hungarian Grand Prix? Check out our guide to the top F1 betting apps before Sunday’s race.