F1 Monaco Grand Prix Predictions, Pole Position & Race Winner Odds

The Mercedes driver enters Sunday riding a four-race winning streak and once again found a way to spoil the party before the lights even went out.

Fortunately for bettors, Monaco is usually less about identifying the fastest car and more about understanding track position. Once the field settles in, passing opportunities become scarce, making starting position and teammate matchups more important than they would be almost anywhere else on the calendar.

Let’s get to the card.

F1 Monaco Grand Prix Predictions

Lando Norris over Oscar Piastri (+165, DraftKings)

McLaren teammates Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris will start from row four, with Piastri rolling off seventh and Norris eighth.

Oddly enough, our simulations don’t see much separation between them. Both drivers average a seventh-place finish across the model runs, which makes perfect sense given the realities of Monaco. If overtaking opportunities are limited and both drivers start in the same row, they should finish somewhere in that same neighborhood.

So what are we really betting on?

Variance.

Pit strategy. Traffic. A slightly better launch. A perfectly timed undercut. A safety car appearing at the right moment.

If Norris wins this matchup roughly half the time, we’ll gladly take the healthy plus-money return.

Carlos Sainz over Alex Albon (+135, DraftKings)

This matchup looks remarkably similar.

Williams teammates Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz occupy row six, starting 11th and 12th respectively. Once again, the model projects almost no separation between the two drivers, with both averaging a finishing position of 12.0.

When projections are essentially identical, price becomes king.

Albon deserves respect, but there’s enough randomness in Monaco strategy and enough uncertainty surrounding pit cycles to justify taking plus money on Sainz.

We’ll happily take the extra payout in what projects as another coin flip.

Isack Hadjar over George Russell (-115, theScore Bet)

Pure pace doesn’t matter much if you’re trapped in traffic.

Mercedes has occasionally struggled on race starts this season, and Monaco punishes even the smallest mistakes. A poor launch can become a 78-lap prison sentence.

Hadjar starts fifth while Russell lines up behind him. If Hadjar wins the launch and settles into position, overtaking becomes extraordinarily difficult.

Think back to that tractor.

You’re stuck behind a slow-moving vehicle. There’s a double yellow line. Traffic is coming the other way. You know you’re faster. It doesn’t matter.

That’s Monaco.

Red Bull also owns one of the strongest pit crews in Formula 1, making it unlikely they’ll voluntarily surrender track position through the pit cycle.

The number feels short given Hadjar’s starting advantage.

Lewis Hamilton to Win (+750, theScore Bet/BetRivers)

It was a Ferrari weekend.

Until it wasn’t.

But maybe it still can be.