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- The Flyers visit Buffalo on Wednesday looking to snap a three-game losing streak
- The Sabres have won 13 of their last 15, but the underlying numbers point to regression
- See my Flyers vs Sabres prediction and player props for Wednesday’s matchup on TNT
The Philadelphia Flyers (22-14-8) visit the Buffalo Sabres (24-16-4) on Wednesday night in the final meeting of the season series. Both teams are tied at 52 points and sit one point out of a playoff spot.
Buffalo opened as a -156 favorite, but the line has moved to -135. The Flyers have gone from +130 to +115. The big money is all over Philly tonight, which is something I’m factoring into my Sabres vs Flyers prediction.
Puck drop is 7:30 PM ET from KeyBank Center, with TNT carrying the broadcast. Here’s my Flyers vs Sabres prediction, along with player props and Wednesday NHL odds.
Flyers vs Sabres Prediction
Picks:
Betslip #1768424042464-481c-386
I’m going against the grain here. Buffalo is 13-2-0 in their last 15, and Philadelphia just got smoked by Tampa in back-to-back home losses. On the surface, this looks like a spot to back the Sabres. But the underlying numbers don’t support them as favorites.
Over their last 10 games at 5-on-5, Buffalo is getting outplayed. They’re posting a 47.37 CF% and 46.74 SCF%. A team with those numbers should be hovering around .500, not going 8-2.
So how are they winning? A 92.34% save percentage and 11.30% shooting percentage. That’s a 1.036 PDO, and they’re scoring nearly four goals above expected. That kind of run doesn’t last.
Last 10 Games: 5v5 Advanced Stats
Philadelphia has actually been the better possession team. The Flyers own a 50.23 CF% and 51.86 xGF% over their last 10. They’re creating more than they’re giving up, but the results haven’t followed because of bad goaltending in the slot. That can flip quickly.
The Flyers are 5-1 in their last six games following a loss of three or more goals, which shows they respond well to ugly performances. Now, oddsmakers are giving us plus-money on a team that’s been outplaying opponents but catching bad breaks. The sharps are hammering Philly here for a reason.
I’m also taking the over. These teams have combined for six or more goals in each of the last 10 meetings, and the over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 head-to-head. Both teams can put the puck in the net, and neither defense is shutting anyone down.
Flyers vs Sabres Player Prop Picks
Betslip #1768425037178-481c-504
Jack Quinn Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-135 at Caesars)
Quinn has cleared this line in 13 of his last 14 home games, a 93% hit rate. When Buffalo is favored, he’s even better, going over in 11 straight while averaging 2.73 shots per game.
This line opened at -180 and has dropped to -135, so you’re getting value on a prop that’s been automatic at KeyBank Center. Expect Quinn to have plenty of opportunities to fire away and clear this number as the Sabres play their up-tempo style.
Christian Dvorak Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-152)
Dvorak has gone over 1.5 shots in eight of his last nine games. On the road, he’s cleared this total in five of his last six while averaging 3.2 shots per game. He’s been putting pucks on net no matter what’s happening around him.
Dvorak is centering Philly’s top line between Trevor Zegras and Travis Konecny, so ice time won’t be an issue. You have to lay some juice, but Buffalo’s lackluster defensive metrics should mean plenty of opportunities for Dvorak to put pucks on net.
Flyers vs Sabres Odds
The Sabres opened at -156 and have dropped to -135 home favorites, which implies a 57.4% win probability. Philadelphia has moved from +130 to +115, now giving them an implied 46.5% chance to win outright. Caesars currently offers the best line on Philly at +118.
The puck line has Buffalo at -1.5 (+155). The home team has won each of the last six meetings between these clubs, which supports laying the puck line. But I prefer the Flyers value on the moneyline given the underlying numbers and line movement.
Odds as of Jan. 14. Check out the best betting sites for Wednesday Night Hockey on TNT.
How to Watch Flyers vs Sabres
Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
TV: TNT, truTV, HBO Max
Dan Vladar (16-7-4, 2.42 GAA, .907 SV%) is expected to start for Philadelphia. He’s been solid this season but owns a .892 save percentage in his last three starts against Buffalo.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (9-6-1, 2.63 GAA, .904 SV%) gets the call for the Sabres. He’s been sharp during Buffalo’s hot stretch, allowing just one goal in three of his last six starts while posting a .930 save percentage over that span.
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