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It’s out of the frying pan and into the fire for Cinderella side Paraguay at the 2026 World Cup. After ousting Germany as massive underdogs on Monday, the South Americans will now face tournament favorite France in the round of 16. France and Paraguay will meet on Saturday, July 4, in Philadelphia.
Les Bleus are coming off a consummate 3-0 rout of Sweden on Tuesday night and are prohibitively short favorites to progress to the quarterfinals in the opening France vs Paraguay odds.
France vs Paraguay Odds
France is priced at -600 to win in regulation time (an 85.71% implied win probability), the shortest odds of the knockout stage so far. A 90-minute draw is +525 (16% implied probability), while a Paraguay upset is listed at +2000 (4.76% implied probability).
The odds to advance see France at -1600 (94.12% implied probability) and Paraguay at +900 (10% implied probability).
The total-goals line favors another high-scoring game for Les Bleus, with over 2.5 listed at -188 and under 2.5 at +150.
In the odds to win the World Cup, France is trading at a massive 33.9 cents at prediction site Kalshi in the minutes after their win over Sweden. That’s up roughly ten cents from earlier in the day. There is now a massive gap between France and second-favorite Argentina (18.9 cents).
Mbappe Continues Assault on Record Books
With two more knockout stage goals against Sweden on Tuesday, Kylian Mbappe not only moved into a tie in the Golden Boot race with Lionel Messi, he also passed erstwhile Brazilian stars Ronaldo and Leônidas for most World Cup knockout stage goals in history (9). He trails Messi by one goal in the leaderboard for most World Cup goals period (19 vs 18).
France dominated a talented but flawed Swedish side from start to finish, ending the game with 25 shots (12 on target) to 8 (3) for the Swedes. The xGF was just as lopsided, with France generating 3.17 and Sweden just 0.66.
Paraguay a Tough Out
Everyone in Germany learned on Monday night just how disciplined and well-drilled Gustavo Alfaro’s Paraguay team is. They defended brilliantly in the first half before taking a 1-0 lead on a goal against the run of play. While Germany managed to tie it in the second half and force extra time, Paraguay went onto win a brutal penalty shootout thanks to the heroics of keeper Orlando Gill.
Over the full 120 minutes, Paraguay limited Germany to just 1.57 xGA and six shots on target, overall a solid defensive effort against a squad that scored ten times in the group stage (T1st).
Injuries could be a problem for Alfaro and company, though. Goalscorer Julio Enciso had to leave the Germany game due to injury, and it’s unclear what his status will be for the round of 16. Key defender Omar Alderete – who played all 90 minutes against the US and Turkey in the group stage and another 84 against Australia – didn’t feature against Germany due to a knee injury. His status for Saturday is also uncertain.
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