Gibraltar enacts landmark regulatory framework for prediction markets

Gibraltar has adopted the Prediction Market Regulations 2026, with officials touting it as the first jurisdiction to introduce a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets. The regulations are now in force as part of the Gambling Act 2025.

The landmark regulations, announced by Gibraltar’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, Nigel Feetham, formally establish a legal framework governing prediction market operators and contracts, distinguishing the sector from traditional gambling activities.

Under the new rules, a prediction market is defined as a system, platform or arrangement that facilitates the creation, trading or settlement of prediction market contracts—financial instruments whose value is determined by the occurrence or non-occurrence of a specified event or outcome.

A key provision of the framework is Regulation 4(3), which states that prediction market activity will not be classified as betting, gaming or lottery solely because of its characteristics as a prediction market. The distinction provides legal certainty for operators while creating a separate regulatory category within Gibraltar’s gambling legislation.

The regulations also grant Gibraltar’s gambling regulator the authority to prohibit or restrict certain classes of prediction market contracts if they are deemed contrary to regulatory objectives or the public interest.

Restricted contracts may include those linked to criminal activity, death, serious injury, terrorism, war or armed conflict, as well as events that cannot be settled objectively or present heightened risks of market manipulation, consumer harm, disorderly trading or reputational damage to Gibraltar.

Licensed prediction market operators will be required to implement comprehensive market integrity measures, including systems designed to prevent, detect and address market manipulation, insider trading, wash trading and collusive trading. Operators must also establish policies to identify, manage and disclose conflicts of interest while ensuring fair and orderly trading.

In addition, the framework requires operators to provide participants with accurate and transparent information and maintain robust anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CTF) controls.

The move follows Gibraltar’s approval of ADI Predictstreet in March and the licensing of WagerWire in June, making them the territory’s first two licensed prediction market operators.

“This is more than a new regulatory framework; it is a statement of intent,” said Feetham. “My ambition is to position Gibraltar as a leading jurisdiction for responsible digital innovation and for the development of new markets underpinned by high regulatory standards.”

According to the minister, Gibraltar is expected to issue its first prediction market licence under the new regime shortly. An Approval in Principle has already been granted to another operator, while another approval is anticipated in the coming weeks.

Feetham said the regulatory framework was developed through months of collaboration with industry participants to create a regime that balances innovation with strong regulatory oversight.

“More importantly, it provides regulatory certainty for a rapidly developing global industry while creating new opportunities to attract investment, support high-value employment, and further diversify Gibraltar’s economy,” he added.

Gibraltar’s move comes as other jurisdictions explore regulation of the growing prediction market sector. Malta has also previously indicated its intention to develop its own regulatory framework.