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Gibraltar has licensed its first prediction markets operator, marking a shift in European regulation as the territory looks to strengthen its online gaming sector amid rising tax pressures.
The licence was granted to Predict Street Ltd as a betting intermediary under the 2005 Gambling Act, even though new gambling legislation has yet to come into force.
“We expect this to be a substantial area of growth for Gibraltar,” Justice, Trade and Industry Minister Nigel Feetham said.
“A new licence has been issued, not withstanding that the new Gambling Act had not yet been brought into force and the new licence had to be issued under the previous legislation,” he added.
“This represents record timing for the issuing of a regulatory licence in Gibraltar.”
Predict Street, a crypto-based platform powered by Abu Dhabi blockchain provider ADI Chain, is preparing to launch on April 9 and focuses on trading outcomes linked to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which begins on June 11. The operator claims to be the official prediction market partner of the tournament.
The move makes Gibraltar the first jurisdiction in Europe to directly license a prediction markets operator, diverging from a broader regional trend where such platforms face regulatory resistance and are often treated as illegal gambling or unlicensed financial instruments.
The decision reflects efforts to maintain competitiveness in a sector that is central to the territory’s economy.
“Since the introduction of the recent UK gambling duty increases, I have taken a more direct responsibility for promoting Gibraltar’s regulatory offering,” he said.
Gibraltar’s gambling industry employs around 3,500 people and contributes roughly one-third of government tax revenue. Recent increases in UK Remote Gaming Duty and Remote Betting Duty could push the effective tax rate for Gibraltar-based operators to between 80% and 100%.
“This is an issue of vital importance to Gibraltar and one that may directly and indirectly affect our public revenues,” Feetham said.
Other European jurisdictions are taking a more cautious approach. Malta is exploring a regulatory framework for prediction markets, with Economy Minister Silvio Schembri saying the government is “actively exploring the emerging field of prediction markets, an area experiencing rapid global momentum which presents significant opportunities for innovation”.
He added that any development must be “supported by a clear, forward-looking legislative framework that enables it to develop responsibly and at scale”.
Prediction markets, which allow users to trade on the outcomes of future events, have gained traction globally but remain under scrutiny in several regions, including the United States.
Gibraltar officials say adapting to such emerging sectors is critical to sustaining the territory’s position as a hub for online gaming.
“There is no room for complacency,” Feetham said. “We must continue to adapt decisively to a changing global economic environment. And adapt we must.”